On June 24th, the gold market experienced a significant decline. After a period of minor fluctuations during the Asian session, prices began to drop. A short position was initiated below the 4200 level, and the price subsequently continued its gradual descent. During the European session, the price refreshed the intraday low to $4090, and the short position was closed for profit around $4110. The US session saw some stabilization and a modest upward move. Ultimately, gold closed at $4110, forming a large bearish candlestick on the daily chart.
Wednesday, June 24th, presented a particularly noteworthy signal: Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Bank of America collectively expressed bearish views on short-term gold prices on the same day. The US Dollar Index continued its strengthening trend, closing at 101.35, setting a new one-year high. US Treasury yields remained above 4.5%, continuously increasing the holding cost for gold.
Furthermore, silver experienced an even steeper fall, plummeting 5.31% in a single day and approaching its March lows. This synchronous plunge in both gold and silver indicates that capital is withdrawing from the precious metals market as a whole, not just from gold. Of course, positive signals from US-Iran peace talks and a temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East have led to the withdrawal of safe-haven funds that previously supported gold, resulting in synchronized selling of both metals.
From a technical perspective, yesterday's decline piercing through the 4100 level signaled a continuation of the downward corrective move. Although prices rebounded somewhat during the European and US sessions, they encountered resistance again at 4145. The subsequent decline in the late-night session further underscores the current dominant weak structure of gold, making it difficult to find intrinsic bullish conditions. Coupled with the absence of supportive news, another drop in gold prices seems inevitable. If gold breaks below yesterday's low of 4090 today, the next target could be the psychological 4000 level. However, the hourly chart already shows signs of being oversold and exhibiting a bullish divergence, which may impose some limits on today's potential decline. Initial support can be watched around 4050, but the main support zone is expected within the 4020-4000 area. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 4110-4115, followed by the overnight rebound high near 4145. As long as the price does not break above 4150, the technical conditions and outlook for further declines remain intact.
In summary, there are no major data releases tonight, but tomorrow (Thursday) at 20:30 US time, the US will release the May Core PCE Price Index—the Federal Reserve's most-watched inflation gauge. The market has already priced in expectations for interest rate hikes. However, if the PCE data exceeds expectations again, the probability of a hike could surge further from the current 85%. Conversely, if the data is moderate, it might offer gold a chance to catch its breath. The current market direction is not yet clear. Prudent investors may consider waiting for the data release and for the trend to become more defined before taking action. Preserving capital always remains the top priority.
Therefore, for today's trading, the following suggestions are made:
Gold: Consider short positions between 4065-4070, with a stop loss at 4080, targeting 4010-4000. Hold the position if the support breaks. If the 4000 support holds, consider closing shorts and initiating long positions for a range-bound play.
Key economic data and events to watch today, Wednesday, June 24, 2026:
20:30 US Q1 Current Account
22:00 US May New Home Sales (Annualized)
04:00 (Next Day) Federal Reserve Annual Bank Stress Test Results Release
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