According to an industry news app, China Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that on October 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and four other departments jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Strengthening Consumption Infrastructure Construction and Promoting Positive Interaction Between Consumption and Investment," supporting the construction of consumption infrastructure from six aspects including renovation, services, transportation, circulation, green and digitalization, and safeguards. Currently, commercial real estate has entered a stock quality improvement phase, and the industry may diverge in the future. Branded asset-light operators, commercial real estate companies with ample capital and low financing costs, and those holding projects in prime locations may benefit first. The "Opinions" expand the positioning of REITs into a composite mechanism that combines market-oriented exit with operational standardization constraints, and the market space for consumption infrastructure and commercial real estate REITs is expected to further open up. The main views of China Securities Co., Ltd. are as follows: On October 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and four other departments jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Strengthening Consumption Infrastructure Construction and Promoting Positive Interaction Between Consumption and Investment" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"), proposing twenty requirements in six aspects: improving urban and rural commercial facilities, upgrading service consumption facilities, optimizing transportation consumption facilities, improving the circulation facility network, advancing new consumption facility construction, and safeguard measures.
Commercial real estate has entered a stock quality improvement phase. According to statistics from Ying Shang Wang, the number of centralized commercial facilities nationwide currently exceeds 9,400, with annual new openings declining from a peak of 702 to 369 last year, and 20% of which are stock renovation and reopening projects, indicating that commercial real estate has entered a stock era. For a long time, a large number of existing shopping malls and department stores have faced difficulties such as aging equipment, homogenized business formats, and loss of foot traffic. Since renovation investment is tied up in heavy assets with long payback periods, owners lack economic incentives. The "Opinions" point out to "support the renewal of offline consumption commercial facilities and equipment, and promote the integrated development of multiple business formats in commercial districts," indicating that the policy has shifted from "building increments" to "renovating stock and improving operations." In the future, the focus of competition in commercial real estate will gradually shift from "location and area" to "operational adjustment and renovation."
The industry may diverge, with three types of commercial real estate companies benefiting first. Industry competition is gradually shifting toward operational and renovation capabilities. Against the backdrop of low consumption growth, future commercial real estate performance may diverge, and the following three types of commercial real estate companies may benefit first: 1) Branded asset-light operators, which continuously expand market share by taking over stock renovation projects through asset-light models; 2) Companies with ample capital and low financing costs; renovation requires upfront capital expenditure, and owners with ample capital or low financing costs can launch renovations counter-cyclically, seizing the window for stock renovation during supply contraction; 3) Companies with more projects in core locations; existing shopping malls in core locations of core cities have stronger foot traffic foundations and rent recovery elasticity.
The functional positioning of the REITs market has been upgraded. Previously, the main function of REITs was to revitalize stock assets. The "Opinions" list REITs alongside new policy-based financial tools as expandable investment channels supporting consumption infrastructure construction, expanding the positioning of REITs into a composite mechanism that combines market-oriented exit with operational standardization constraints. For owners, the existence of an exit channel in turn constrains front-end renovation and operational behavior, making "renovation—operation—securitization" a disciplined cycle rather than a one-time asset exit. With the upgrading of REITs' functional positioning and the entry of a large number of commercial properties into the stock renovation phase, the market space for consumption infrastructure and commercial real estate REITs is expected to further open up.
Bullish on branded shopping mall operators and premium consumption REITs. Leading commercial real estate companies have formed strong brand influence, extensive asset-light output practices, and stock renovation experience. Bullish on consumption infrastructure REITs with brand influence, strong operational management capabilities, and layouts in cities with high offline commercial value.
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