On February 24, Tuniu's stock price closed sharply higher by 13.19%, marking the second time this year that its shares have surged over 10%. Since hitting an interim high of $0.98 on September 30 last year, Tuniu's stock experienced a decline lasting more than four months, with the price dropping to a low of $0.56, representing a maximum fluctuation of nearly 40%. Crucially, as the stock's closing price has remained below the minimum bid requirement of $1.00 per share for an extended period, Tuniu now faces the risk of delisting, making the maintenance of its Nasdaq listing status an urgent priority.
Is a delisting countdown underway? On May 19 last year, Nasdaq's Listing Qualifications Department notified Tuniu in writing that its stock closing price had fallen below the $1.00 minimum bid for 30 consecutive business days, posing a delisting risk. Under Nasdaq Listing Rule 5810(c)(3)(A), the company was granted a 180-calendar-day compliance period, until November 17, 2025, to regain compliance. If, at any point during this period, the closing price of Tuniu's ADS reaches $1.00 or higher for at least 10 consecutive business days, Nasdaq will issue a written compliance confirmation. This marked the third such notification Tuniu received since January and August of last year.
Between May 19 and November 17 last year, Tuniu's closing price mostly stayed below $1, with only a brief intraday high of $1.01 on June 11. Having failed to meet compliance within the initial 180 days, Tuniu announced on November 21 that it had applied to transfer from the Nasdaq Global Market to the Nasdaq Capital Market, securing an additional 180-day grace period until May 18, 2026. To satisfy requirements, Tuniu's ADS closing price must reach or exceed $1 for at least 10 consecutive trading days before this deadline. Nasdaq approved the extension partly because Tuniu met other continued listing criteria for the Capital Market and committed to corrective measures.
Notably, on January 13 this year, Nasdaq proposed stricter ongoing listing rules, requiring listed companies to maintain a market capitalization of at least $5 million, with non-compliance leading to immediate suspension and delisting without a cure period. While Tuniu's current market cap exceeds $80 million, its stock price remains below the $1 threshold, keeping delisting risks alive.
Could the recent stock rebound be a lifeline? Examining Q2 and Q3 2025 results alongside market movements reveals speculative trading around earnings reports. For instance, ahead of Q2 2025 results on August 13, Tuniu's stock rebounded to the Bollinger Band midline, closing up 7.93% but with a long upper shadow and elevated volume of 332,200 shares, indicating market divergence. After reporting revenue growth without profit improvement in Q2, the stock reversed over six trading days from August 15 to 22, shifting from four consecutive declines to two gains, with a cumulative rise of 15.27% on August 21–22.
In Q2 2025, Tuniu showed clear revenue growth without corresponding profit gains. Revenue costs increased 50.2% year-over-year to RMB 48.9 million, accounting for 36.2% of net revenue, up from 27.8%. Operating expenses rose 58.0% to RMB 78.9 million. However, packaged tour revenue grew 26.3% to RMB 113 million, reflecting recovering consumer demand and Tuniu's capture of market recovery opportunities. Post-earnings performance indicated initial investor concern over profit declines, followed by recognition of the company's output strategy.
For nearly a month after Q2 results, Tuniu's stock traded near the upper Bollinger Band, approaching $1 again. But in Q3 2025, with another "revenue growth without profit" report, market sentiment shifted. After peaking on September 30, the stock declined along the lower Bollinger Band until November 22, when it began climbing, recording three consecutive gains from December 2 to 4, mirroring pre-Q2 speculative activity. Post-earnings performance, however, diverged.
In Q3 2025, Tuniu sustained business growth and quarterly profitability, with net revenue up 8.64% to RMB 202 million, though net profit attributable to shareholders fell 55.56% to RMB 19.751 million. Packaged tour revenue continued double-digit growth, exceeding 12% year-over-year. Yet, after Q3 results on December 5, the stock closed down 3.21% on a record high volume of 3.3307 million shares for the year, signaling significant investor disagreement and profit-taking. The stock continued declining until hitting a low of $0.56 on February 19 this year, when a rebound emerged.
On February 19, despite testing the lower Bollinger Band, Tuniu's stock surged 7.64%, followed by four consecutive gains. Unlike previous sluggish declines, this rebound was sharp, with the price jumping from the lower to upper Bollinger Band in just four sessions, showing an upward trend and a nearly 30% cumulative increase. Lower trading volume during the rebound suggested high market consensus, with主力 funds able to drive prices up efficiently after earlier sell-offs.
Valuation-wise, Tuniu's price-to-sales ratio stands at 1.08x, well below the industry average of 3.22x. Additionally, its net asset value per share is $1.33, indicating the stock trades below book value. Meanwhile, China's "longest Spring Festival" concluded this year, with holiday travel exceeding 2.8 billion trips, averaging 311 million daily, up 8.2% year-over-year, setting a record. This favorable backdrop may support a market rally, potentially serving as Tuniu's lifeline to achieve compliance.
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