Gf Securities Co.,Ltd. suggests investors focus on two key themes: the push against internal competition and the recovery of domestic demand. The firm believes the anti-involution campaign could benefit e-commerce express delivery and chemical logistics operators, including 嘉友国际, as both delivery pricing and resource commodity prices may find a bottom and rebound, improving their operational performance. Meanwhile, the domestic demand recovery theme offers opportunities in the oil and bulk shipping segments, where high capacity utilization ahead of the peak season provides greater confidence in strong seasonal performance. The airline sector, supported by medium-term capacity supply constraints and improving load factors, is poised for earnings elasticity once demand strengthens and oil price pressures ease.
Looking at the first half of 2026, shipping sector performance is expected to diverge further. Container shipping faces overall pressure but shows marginal improvement in Q2, with 中远海控 experiencing a 50% year-on-year decline in Q1 net profit but a 29% rebound in Q2. 锦江航运 is seeing revenue growth without profit growth. The oil tanker market remains prosperous, with 中远海能 and 招商南油 posting H1 net profit growth of 143% and 42% year-on-year, respectively. Demand for comprehensive and specialized vessels is robust, with 招商轮船 delivering a 228% year-on-year increase in H1 net profit and 中远海特 showing accelerating growth quarter by quarter. Dry bulk shipping displays significant elasticity, with 海通发展 reporting a 503% year-on-year surge in H1 net profit. Given potential disruptions from extreme weather and geopolitical tensions, opportunities exist across oil, bulk, and container segments, making the sector attractive for allocation.
In the logistics sector for the first half of 2026, although performance varies across sub-segments, the trend of cyclical recovery is clear. While express delivery industry volume growth has slowed to single digits, e-commerce express companies have benefited from higher pricing benchmarks, generally accelerating earnings in Q2. Cross-border logistics has been boosted by rising air and sea freight rates amid geopolitical disruptions. 华贸物流 and 东航物流 saw Q2 net profits increase by 17% and 13% year-on-year, respectively, while 中国外运 grew its non-recurring-adjusted net profit by 24%. 嘉友国际 benefited from a thriving Mongolian coal market, achieving a 35% year-on-year increase in Q2 net profit. Chemical logistics maintains high freight rates in foreign trade. In the bulk commodity supply chain sector, results diverge under domestic demand pressure, with 厦门象屿, 厦门国贸, and 浙商中拓 posting Q2 net profit growth of 4%, 69%, and 348% year-on-year, respectively. Looking ahead, considering fundamentals and valuations, opportunities for recovery are seen in chemical logistics, express delivery, and cross-border logistics.
For the airline industry in the first half of 2026, demand growth outpaced capacity expansion. Across six sample airlines, available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) grew by 2.50% and 4.76% year-on-year, respectively. The average load factor improved by 1.8 percentage points to 85.7%, driving broad revenue growth across carriers. However, the average ex-factory price of aviation kerosene surged 38.4% year-on-year, with Q2 prices up approximately 90%, leading to concentrated cost pressures. Consequently, all airlines reported year-on-year declines in Q2 net profit. While RMB appreciation eased some financial pressure, it was insufficient to offset the drag of higher oil prices on gross margins and profitability. Looking forward, a tight global aircraft supply chain constrains medium-term capacity growth. Domestic demand improvement awaits macroeconomic catalysts, while international demand benefits from expanded visa-free policies and rising cross-border passenger traffic. For airports, a higher proportion of international traffic and improved capacity utilization should gradually support the recovery of non-aeronautical revenue from duty-free and duty-paid commercial activities, releasing profit elasticity for major hub airports. However, the impact of new capacity and capital expenditure on costs and cash flow requires attention.
In infrastructure, select secondary targets may deliver better-than-expected performance, while awaiting a turnaround in bulk commodity trade service nodes. Railway travel demand remains stable. The opening of the Xiong-Shang high-speed rail could bring incremental passenger flow to 京福安徽公司, though the diversionary and feeding effects of new corridors on existing routes warrant continuous monitoring. In the highway sector, leading companies generally meet expectations. 越秀交通基建's performance recovery has already commenced, with a weak rebound in highway traffic. Regional traffic performance varies, but developed regions demonstrate stronger resilience.
Key risks include significant economic fluctuations, business growth falling short of expectations, and underperformance by key watchlist companies.
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