According to a research report released by BOCI, China's Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have announced adjustments to the export tax rebate policy for certain products, with the value-added tax export tax rebate rate for new energy vehicles set to be reduced from 13% to 9%, effective from April 1, 2027.
The bank believes this move continues the direction of the "new three" categories—including solar panels and batteries—gradually exiting policy support and shifting toward market-driven growth.
The bank notes that the reduction from 13% to 9% for new energy vehicles matches the magnitude of the first round of adjustments for solar panels and batteries, but the transition period is more lenient, giving automakers nearly six months to prepare. This helps them readjust export pricing, optimize order structures, and accelerate localized production capacity布局, alleviating short-term pressure.
The adjustment covers both passenger and commercial new energy vehicles, broader than the market's earlier expectation of "passenger cars first"; fuel vehicles are not included in the rebate reduction, helping ease pressure on traditional automakers.
The bank expects new energy vehicle export growth to slow rather than decline in absolute terms; if automakers fully absorb the costs themselves, export gross margins will come under pressure.
In the medium term, lower tax rebates will also push automakers to shift from exporting China-made vehicles to overseas production and localization. Leading players with stronger competitiveness, better cost control, and superior overseas manufacturing capabilities will adapt more easily, and industry consolidation may accelerate.
In terms of export structure, Chery Automobile (09973), Geely Auto (00175), and GWMOTOR (02333) are relatively buffered due to their higher proportion of fuel vehicles and hybrids; pure new energy exporters such as XPENG-W (09868) face more direct pressure, though leading players can still mitigate the impact through retail repricing, supply chain cost-sharing, and accelerating overseas plant construction.
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