East Money Securities has released a research report stating that, according to CIC, sales of smart robotic lawn mowers reached 383,500 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 156%, while the penetration rate remains at only 2%. Under an optimistic scenario, the potential sales volume for smart robotic lawn mowers is estimated to exceed 6 million units. The current low penetration rate and significant room for technological advancement suggest that the period from 2026 to 2027 will likely replicate the early stage of robotic vacuum cleaners, characterized by rapid penetration growth driven by technological dividends. Against the backdrop of EU anti-dumping measures, leading manufacturers with advantages in technology and channels, strong brand power, and overseas production capacity are viewed favorably. The main views of East Money Securities are as follows:
The smart robotic lawn mower sector exhibits high growth potential with substantial room for increased market penetration. According to CIC and Euromonitor, the global annual demand for lawn mowers in 2024 was 20.18 million units, up 8% year-on-year, with an estimated sales value of $8.45 billion, increasing 2% year-on-year. Sales channels are predominantly offline; Market Reports World indicates that offline channels accounted for 65% of sales in 2023 and hold strong bargaining power. Specifically, Euromonitor forecasts that sales of robotic lawn mowers will reach $780 million in 2024, up 4% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of only 9%, indicating significant growth potential. Regionally, based on Big Data Cross-border, North America accounted for 36% of the market in 2023 and Europe for 30%. Euromonitor estimates the penetration rate in North America will be about 3% in 2024, while rates in European countries range between 20% and 40%. The North American market, with its large size and low penetration, offers better growth prospects and remains largely untapped.
Smart robotic lawn mowers, which require no boundary wires and offer convenient use and deployment, are gradually replacing wired models and are expected to subsequently displace manual walk-behind and riding lawn mowers. According to CIC, sales of smart robotic lawn mowers reached 383,500 units in 2024, a surge of 156% year-on-year, yet penetration stands at just 2%. Estimates suggest that, optimistically, the potential sales volume could surpass 6 million units.
Product innovation is driving growth, with emerging Chinese brands rapidly expanding their overseas market share. East Money Securities believes growth drivers for robotic lawn mowers include regulatory demand, product and technological iteration, declining average prices aiding普及, and improved after-sales service. Specifically: 1) Regulatory Demand. Lawn maintenance regulations in Europe and the U.S. make mowing a necessity, while bans on燃油 outdoor power equipment are accelerating the shift from gasoline to lithium battery-powered products. 2) Product & Technology Iteration. Cost advantages are driving upgrades to lithium battery and robotic products, with technology evolving from RTK/vision systems to lidar and from single-sensor to multi-sensor fusion. 3) Price Decline and普及. The price range for robotic mowers is expanding in the mid-to-high end, while Chinese brands are pushing average prices down into the mid-range "blue ocean" segment, facilitating market expansion. 4) After-sales Service Improvement. Robotic mowers heavily rely on after-sales support, and increasingly完备 policies are encouraging consumption.
Emerging Chinese brands are capturing market share from traditional overseas lawn mower brands. Leveraging "technological gaps, supply chain advantages, and cross-border channels," emerging brands like Mammotion and Navimow are rapidly increasing their share in Amazon's lawn mower category. Mammotion's share on Amazon US rose from 7% to 19% between 2023 and 2025, and on Amazon Germany from 0.7% to 35%; Navimow's share on Amazon US increased from 0.2% to 2.8%, reaching 11% on Amazon Germany in 2025. This may lead to a new top-tier market structure with Mammotion dominating the high-end and Navimow leading the mid-range segment.
Compared to robotic vacuum cleaners, the sector is still in a phase of realizing technology dividends. The technological positioning of robotic lawn mowers can be seen as a "technology transfer" from the small-scale application of robotic vacuum cleaners to large-scale outdoor use. Currently, smart robotic lawn mowers have low penetration and significant potential for technological upgrades. It is anticipated that the period from 2026 to 2027 will mirror the early stage of robotic vacuum cleaners, where technological红利 drove rapid penetration increases.
The impact of the EU anti-dumping investigation is expected to be manageable, potentially leading to market concentration among leading players. Reviewing past EU anti-dumping cases on E-Bikes and US cases on golf carts, leading manufacturers with high average selling prices and significant technological advantages tend to receive lower tariff rates. They can also mitigate tariff impacts through price adjustments and shifting production overseas. In contrast, small and medium-sized manufacturers relying solely on low prices without the capacity for production转移 may lose competitiveness and be forced out. The current EU anti-dumping investigation could raise market entry barriers,淘汰 smaller players, and lead to greater market share concentration among top manufacturers.
Regarding investment targets, it is suggested to focus on Ninebot Co., Ltd. (689009.SH), Ecovacs Robotics Co., Ltd. (603486.SH), Roborock Technology (688169.SH), and CHERVON (02285).
Risk warnings include: Intensified industry competition: Increased competition in the robotic lawn mower sector could adversely affect the profitability of Chinese brands. Overseas policy volatility risks: Escalating trade friction or high EU anti-dumping tariffs could negatively impact the overseas expansion of Chinese brands. Exchange rate fluctuation risks: Significant currency volatility could削弱 the price competitiveness of Chinese brands, affecting their revenue. Slower-than-expected channel expansion: As robotic lawn mower sales rely heavily on offline channels, slower-than-expected overseas channel expansion could hinder market development. Risks of slower-than-expected R&D: Robotic lawn mowers are still in a phase of technological iteration. Chinese brands rely on technological advantages for overseas expansion; if R&D progress lags, product competitiveness could weaken.
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