Spot gold broke below the $3,900 level on Friday.
As of the close on October 30 local time, Wind data showed that spot gold (London spot gold) fell 3.61% to $3,875.19 per ounce, hitting a new low since early October 2025; spot silver (London spot silver) fell 5.82% to $49.107 per ounce, dropping below $50 for the first time since November 2025.
COMEX gold futures fell 3.63% to $3,884.90 per ounce; COMEX silver futures fell 6.20% to $49.135 per ounce. In October, spot gold accumulated a decline of 6.79%, while spot silver fell more than 18% during the month, with both facing a second consecutive monthly decline. For the year overall, spot gold has fallen more than 10% year-to-date, retreating more than 30% from this year's high; spot silver has dropped more than 31%.
Affected by this, prices of domestic branded gold jewelry have fallen sharply in tandem, with declines approaching 550 yuan per gram from the year's high. Chow Sang Sang gold jewelry was quoted at 1,161 yuan per gram, down 42 yuan from the previous day and down 547 yuan from the year's high; Chow Tai Fook gold jewelry was quoted at 1,168 yuan per gram, down 31 yuan from the previous day and down 538 yuan from the year's high; Lao Feng Xiang gold jewelry was quoted at 1,165 yuan per gram, down 35 yuan from the previous day and down 548 yuan from the year's high.
Market opinion holds that persistent rises in energy prices, intensifying U.S. inflation pressure, and strong market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, among other intertwined factors, have kept precious metals assets under continuous pressure. On the news front, data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. September personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.5% month-on-month, the largest increase since March this year. Previously, U.S. September consumer price data also showed inflation was accelerating. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders currently expect about a 75% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December.
Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said gold's decline is testing technical levels. Earlier, bargain-hunting buying had limited gold's losses, but whether investors will step in again remains to be seen. Waterer further noted that this week's U.S. macroeconomic data contained enough strong signals to keep the Fed potentially raising rates in December. Given current oil price levels, gold is facing dual pressure from inflation and interest rate expectations.
Meanwhile, U.S. inflation concerns triggered by rising international crude oil prices have become another pressure facing the gold market. On the news front, according to CCTV News, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on October 30 that four "non-compliant" oil tankers exploded and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz that day. International oil prices continued to rise. As of the close on October 30, light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $2.12 to settle at $104.12 per barrel, a gain of 2.08%; London Brent crude oil futures for December delivery rose $2.76 to settle at $117.64 per barrel, a gain of 2.4%.
Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, also said that persistent inflation concerns are pushing several central banks toward a more hawkish stance, with interest rates set to remain elevated for a longer period, which is weighing on precious metals prices.
"The recent pullback, we believe, mainly reflects market concerns about a hawkish Fed stance, a stronger dollar, and short-term position adjustments brought about by the tech stock pullback," said Li Huiqi, macro strategist at the Chief Investment Office of UBS Wealth Management, in an interview. In the short term, these unfavorable factors are still ongoing, including high U.S. real yields and a strong dollar, which may keep gold prices oscillating within the current range.
Zhang Chen, macro analyst at Yide Futures, believes that the recent marginal deterioration of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, combined with selling triggered by tech company earnings disclosures, has created new market safe-haven demand. Some safe-haven funds shifted to the U.S. Treasury market, and precious metals failed to receive corresponding support, which is the main reason for the pullback in the precious metals sector. In addition, the Federal Reserve kept policy unchanged as expected at its October monetary policy meeting, but Fed Chair Kevin Warsh believed that financial conditions remained relatively loose after the last rate hike, hinting that there is still room for further rate increases. Therefore, it is currently impossible to say that rate hike expectations have peaked, which also makes it difficult for precious metals prices to shake off their weakness.
Suki Cooper, global head of commodities research at Standard Chartered Bank, warned that the market needs to hold the support level of $3,886 per ounce. If gold prices continue to fall below that point, the market may see a deeper pullback. However, Standard Chartered remains optimistic about gold's long-term trend. The bank forecasts that gold's average price will reach $4,650 per ounce in the fourth quarter and rise further to $4,850 per ounce in the first quarter of 2027. Cooper pointed out that from the perspective of investment positioning, the market may be approaching a potential bottom. The report showed that speculative investors have cut gold exposure for eight consecutive weeks; profit-taking exits and long liquidation have brought current positioning to the lowest level since May. For most of this year, central banks and ETP investors have regarded gold price pullbacks as buying opportunities, which is also an important basis for the bank's long-term bullish view on gold.
"Our long-term view on gold remains unchanged. But if oil prices continue to rise and push up inflation expectations, gold prices may continue to probe lower in the coming weeks, seeking a bottom," Cooper said.
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