On December 11, Bitcoin held steady above $91,000 despite the Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point rate cut, with overall volatility nearly frozen. EasyMarkets noted that this calm is not solely policy-driven but stems from sustained easing of on-chain selling pressure. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin inflows to exchanges have dropped sharply from November highs as large holders reduced transfers, significantly shrinking short-term sell pressure and keeping the market in an extremely tight range.
CryptoQuant also reported that whales realized over $600 million in losses when Bitcoin first dipped below $100,000, with cumulative losses later estimated at $3.2 billion. Short-term holders have been selling at negative profit margins since mid-November, typically signaling fully vented market sentiment. EasyMarkets views this structural signal as indicative of nearing exhaustion in sell pressure, explaining Bitcoin's stability around $92,000. However, QCP warned that current stability does not reflect genuine confidence recovery, citing limited ETF inflows and cautious derivatives positioning—more akin to a "static range" awaiting external catalysts.
As attention shifts to Tokyo, prediction markets widely expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to hike rates by 25 basis points on December 19. QCP highlighted that Japan's long-term bond yields are nearing multi-year highs, unsettling policymakers about their rapid rise, making local policy shifts a potential key variable for global liquidity direction. EasyMarkets suggests the BOJ's decision could reshape global risk appetite amid diverging monetary policies among major economies, potentially triggering a breakout in the currently tranquil crypto market.
With limited macro news, weakening on-chain sell pressure, and modest institutional inflows, the crypto market remains in wait-and-see mode. EasyMarkets expects Bitcoin's high-range consolidation to persist, with directional cues likely emerging from the upcoming BOJ decision and its impact on global liquidity conditions.
Comments