Goldman Sachs issued a research report stating that CM BANK (03968) offers a high dividend yield and stronger dividend per share growth. Consequently, Goldman Sachs maintained its "Buy" rating and slightly increased the H-share target price from HK$53.41 to HK$53.44. The A-share target price for China Merchants Bank Co.,Ltd. (600036) was also raised from 54.68 yuan to 54.71 yuan.
The report noted that CM BANK has announced its preliminary results for last year, with revenue and net profit reaching 338 billion yuan and 150 billion yuan, respectively. This implies fourth-quarter 2025 figures of 86 billion yuan for revenue and 36 billion yuan for net profit. This represents full-year 2025 and fourth-quarter net profit growth of 1% and 3%, broadly aligning with the firm's forecasts for the big four state-owned banks.
However, Goldman Sachs projected CM BANK's 2026 revenue and net profit at 355 billion yuan and 163 billion yuan, respectively. These figures are 3% and 5% above the Bloomberg market consensus, implying year-on-year growth of 7% and 8%, compared to average growth of 5% and 3% for the big four banks.
As discussed in previous reports, Goldman Sachs expects 2026 to be the year when CM BANK's net profit growth trajectory diverges from that of the big four banks. This is primarily due to expectations that CM BANK is unlikely to significantly increase provisions, thereby allowing accelerated profit growth driven by strong revenue momentum.
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