A senior JPMorgan investment banking executive offered a mixed outlook for the 2026 mergers and acquisitions market, suggesting it could become a "bumper year" for dealmaking, while simultaneously cautioning that global financial markets might already be in an overvalued state. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Filippo Gori, Co-Head of Global Investment Banking at JPMorgan, noted in an interview that clients are currently in a wait-and-see mode, aware that financing costs remain historically low and acknowledging a significant backlog of transactions that were postponed from the previous year.
However, alongside his positive outlook for the transaction market, Gori also issued a warning, indicating that global market valuations may already be elevated and that any further escalation of geopolitical conflicts could potentially trigger an economic slowdown. Gori expressed his concern, stating that current market pricing for various asset classes seems to reflect an idealized "everything is fine" mentality, as if all outcomes will inevitably be positive, a perspective he finds worrisome.
Furthermore, Gori voiced concerns about the risk of resurgent inflation and the potential end of the credit market's easing cycle. He pointed out that geopolitical turbulence has persisted for a long time, with situations fluctuating between easing and tension, leading market participants to seemingly become accustomed to it; however, he emphasized that it is evident any escalation in conflict could lead to an economic downturn.
Reflecting on his recent European tour, Gori, who relocated to New York last year, spent the past two weeks intensively meeting with clients across several European countries. From these exchanges, he observed that most businesses and investors are more focused on day-to-day operational matters and pay relatively less attention to the broader geopolitical environment. Despite escalating rhetoric from former U.S. President Donald Trump targeting European nations opposed to a U.S. acquisition of Greenland, Gori reported that most clients are largely unconcerned.
Gori stated that companies simply want to focus on their operations and core responsibilities, preferring not to dwell excessively on tariff issues. He suggested that while the topic of tariffs "might come back into focus," the overall market sentiment he perceives is relatively optimistic, with a prevailing attitude of accepting the current situation and concentrating on the present.
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