On November 2, A-share baijiu stocks staged a broad rally. By the midday close, 19 baijiu counters had all moved higher, with Gansu Huangtai Wine-Marketing Industry Co.,Ltd. (ASX: 000995) notching a second consecutive limit-up, while Sichuan Swellfun Co.,Ltd. (ASX: 600779) and Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.,Ltd. (ASX: 600199) also hit their daily caps. Gujing Distillery, Yingjia Distillery and Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. (ASX: 600519) all advanced, with Moutai rising more than 3% to reclaim the 1,400 yuan per share level. The Wind Baijiu Index surged 4.75% by the midday break, bringing its cumulative October gain to 4.01%.
The rally followed the completion of third-quarter earnings reports, which showed revenue and net profit attributable to parent company shareholders growing at several distillers. Industry observers now suggest that bottoming signals for the baijiu sector have emerged. Wind data shows that among the 19 listed baijiu companies on the A-share market, six posted year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in the third quarter: Shede Spirits (72.44%), Jiugui Liquor (62.59%), Huangtai (58.22%), Jinshiyuan (31.59%), Yingjia Distillery (8.58%) and Moutai (3.78%). Ten companies recorded sequential growth, including Swellfun (224.34%), Shede Spirits (157.34%) and Luzhou Laojiao (111.12%).
On the revenue side, seven of the 19 distillers achieved year-on-year growth: Jinshiyuan (15.54%), Laobaigan Liquor (9.45%), Yingjia Distillery (4.25%), Gujing Distillery (3.69%), Kouzijiao (3.09%), Moutai (3.08%) and Swellfun (2.69%). Twelve companies reported sequential revenue growth, including Swellfun (228.34%), Luzhou Laojiao (71.45%) and Golden Seed (67.80%).
In a research note dated November 1, Sinolink Securities noted that the baijiu sector offers solid defensive attributes against a backdrop of low expectations and a relatively favorable chip structure. The brokerage said market expectations for an industry bottom are strengthening, particularly as more distillers show stabilizing revenue in their third-quarter reports. Sinolink believes that pricing has largely bottomed and destocking is entering its final phase, with reported earnings set to gradually converge with actual sell-through. It also expects an improvement in operations and a profit recovery for the sector in 2027, which could deliver notable earnings elasticity.
CITIC Securities made a similar point in an October 29 research note, noting that the current downcycle in the baijiu industry has lasted more than five years since peak prosperity in 2021. The sector has gone through four stages: weakening demand, falling wholesale prices, channel inventory buildup and financial statement clearing. From 2026 to date, the industry has completed the vast majority of its clearing across pricing, inventory, channels and performance. It is now in the late bottoming and final clearing phase, with bottom signals evident in premium liquor wholesale prices, channel inventories and market expectations. CITIC Securities expects baijiu demand to achieve a weak recovery in 2027, supported by macroeconomic catalysts and a low base.
The views expressed in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risks, and caution is advised when entering the market.
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