According to Woofun AI, Bitwise research chief Ryan Rasmussen, in the latest edition of his Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, sharply raised his ten-year Bitcoin (BTC) price target from $1.3 million to $1.6 million by 2036. This counterintuitive pricing adjustment comes against a backdrop of widespread pessimism, aiming to give asset allocators return, volatility and correlation projections based on the latest economic data to guide how Bitcoin fits into portfolios.
Looking back at the past year's market trajectory, Bitcoin endured an extremely severe test. From its October 2025 peak to June 2026, the BTC price fell more than 50%, at one point dropping below $59,000. At the same time, the macroeconomic environment deteriorated sharply: war broke out in the Middle East, inflation proved sticky, upward pressure on interest rates increased, and growing fears of an AI bubble bursting pushed sentiment to freezing point, with the media even declaring Bitcoin "dead." In its previous report, Bitwise had projected BTC would reach $1.3 million in 2035. Faced with such a violent drawdown, the market expected that forecast to be cut to $1 million or even lower. Yet using exactly the same model as in 2025 and plugging in updated data, Bitwise not only refrained from lowering its forecast but raised its ten-year outlook to $1.6 million. That adjustment lifted the expected compound annual growth rate from 28.3% to 34.3%, showing that the underlying logic has not been shaken by short-term volatility.
The core variables supporting this optimistic view lie in the expansion of the addressable market size and confidence in capturing share. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that, as investor worries over fiat currency debasement and high inflation intensify, the expected size of the store-of-value market over the next decade expanded from $91 trillion to $110 trillion, while the ten-year expected size of the institutional investment market jumped from $216 trillion to $303 trillion. In addition, markets such as offshore wealth and emerging market currencies that Bitcoin can reach are also expanding in tandem.
Within the valuation framework, to exclude gold already held by institutional investors, the analysis deducts 5% from the full $147 trillion in institutional investment assets estimated by BCG, arriving at a current market size of $139.7 trillion. Data sources include Bloomberg, the IMF, IFAD, BCG, the World Gold Council, the Federal Reserve Board and the EU Tax Observatory, with price benchmarks as of September 30, 2026. Although the cutoff dates for the various market size figures differ, leading the 2036 forecast to use different CAGR calculation windows, the overall trend clearly points to a larger potential price range.
On the institutional adoption front, wealth management platforms such as Wells Fargo (WFC.US) and Merrill Lynch (BAC.US) are steadily moving toward Bitcoin, while central banks and sovereign wealth funds are also steadily increasing allocations rather than retreating. Although skeptics point out that capital is mainly flowing into gold, that BTC is still reeling from a sharp drawdown and that ETF inflows have slowed, the data show that BTC's 53% peak-to-trough decline this cycle is far smaller than in previous bear markets, and its correlation with gold has risen. More critically, despite slower ETF purchases, institutions continued to add exposure during the decline. Bitcoin's share of the store-of-value market has grown from less than 1% a decade ago to more than 5% today. Even assuming that share stays conservatively unchanged, the expansion of the addressable market directly pushes the target price higher. This shows that even amid macroeconomic headwinds, Bitcoin's institutionalization and its store-of-value attributes are still deepening, and its long-term growth potential has not been damaged but instead displayed greater resilience through the volatility.
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