Goldman Sachs: Keeps "Buy" Rating on PICC P&C, 12-Month Target Price HK$19.7

Goldman Sachs has released a research report stating that non-auto personal insurance is expected to become a potential growth driver for PICC P&C (02328) in terms of premium income and underwriting profit, with the company targeting to raise non-auto personal insurance premiums to over RMB 100 billion within the next five years.

The bank maintains a "Buy" rating on PICC P&C with a 12-month target price of HK$19.7. It also maintains a "Buy" rating on PICC Group (01339) H-shares with a target price of HK$6.7, while assigning a "Sell" rating on PICC Group A-shares (601319.SH) with a target price of RMB 6.2.

PICC Group and PICC P&C recently co-hosted an investor day in Suzhou, where management gave presentations and held Q&A sessions on non-auto personal insurance development, technology insurance, health insurance and health management services, as well as investment asset allocation.

PICC P&C stated that non-auto personal insurance premiums reached RMB 55.8 billion in 2025, and the company aims to raise this to over RMB 100 billion within the next five years. Non-auto personal insurance premiums grew from RMB 19.1 billion in 2020 to RMB 55.8 billion, and continued to increase by 16% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2026, accounting for 97% of PICC P&C's new premiums during the same period.

Management views personal non-auto insurance as a second growth curve, targeting premium doubling to nearly RMB 100 billion during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. Assuming a combined ratio of 95%, the bank estimates that non-auto personal insurance contributes over 15% of total underwriting profit, and based on the RMB 100 billion premium target, this could rise to 20% by fiscal year 2030.

The bank also noted that under an optimistic scenario, technology development-related insurance premiums could reach RMB 10 billion during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. Management remains positive on the long-term outlook for health insurance and reiterated its commitment to stable and sustainable dividend growth, targeting a gradual increase in the group's dividend payout ratio to approximately 30% under the new accounting standards.