The geopolitical landscape showed signs of easing again overnight, with spot gold in London fluctuating higher, gaining 0.57%, while SHFE gold closed up 0.87%. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz gained traction, leading to a rapid decline in oil prices. Additionally, US June JOLTS job openings fell more than expected.
In the short term, gold may continue to consolidate at the bottom, with attention turning to the upcoming non-farm payrolls data on Friday. On the macroeconomic front, US June JOLTS job openings dropped to 7.36 million from May's 7.54 million, below the forecast of 7.45 million, indicating that the labor market remains relatively stable.
Fed 2026 voter and Philadelphia Fed President stated that he remains open-minded about the direction of monetary policy, with sustained declines in core inflation serving as the key criterion for his judgment. On the geopolitical side, US-Iran negotiations continue to send de-escalation signals, and expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are rising.
As the US-Iran geopolitical situation continues to emit signs of easing, the US dollar is weakening in choppy trade. While gold has shown relative strength, it is still exhibiting weak performance in a bottoming consolidation pattern. The price action has not given the market greater confidence, likely due to investor caution ahead of the upcoming non-farm payrolls data.
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