The GLP-1 market remains one of the most closely watched sectors in the pharmaceutical industry, with the top two drugs projected to generate nearly $50 billion in sales in 2024. The market continues to experience rapid growth, supported by frequent business development activities and intensive R&D efforts.
Current GLP-1 drugs still have significant room for improvement in patient adherence and market penetration. The next wave of drug innovation is expected to accelerate market expansion. Key R&D focuses include target synergy and oral formulations, with several pipeline drugs demonstrating superior efficacy and compliance compared to tirzepatide.
Domestic pharmaceutical and biotech firms are actively participating in global GLP-1 research, closely following industry leaders in development progress. Future commercialization, R&D advancements, and potential business deals warrant close attention.
**Key Insights:** 1. **Market Growth:** - Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly dominate the GLP-1 market, with combined revenues surging from $2.9 billion in 2015 to $49.4 billion in 2024. - Tirzepatide’s Q2 2025 sales for weight loss and type 2 diabetes reached $3.38 billion and $5.20 billion, respectively, marking 68% and 172% year-over-year growth, surpassing semaglutide in certain formulations.
2. **Expansion Potential:** - Current GLP-1 penetration rates are approximately 7% for type 2 diabetes and below 1% for obesity. - In the U.S., 84 million obese patients (excluding those with comorbidities) represent a vast untapped market. - Weight-loss indications now account for 37% of total GLP-1 sales, up from 14% in early 2023, with further growth expected.
3. **R&D Priorities:** - **Target Synergy:** Combinations with GCGR, GIPR, and AMYR receptors aim to enhance weight loss efficiency. Domestic candidates like HRS9531 and BGM0504 show faster weight reduction, while RAY1225 and mazdutide offer better safety profiles. - **Amylin-Based Therapies:** Novo Nordisk’s amycretin and Eli Lilly’s eloralintide outperform tirzepatide in weight loss but face challenges with gastrointestinal side effects. - **Oral Formulations:** Convenience and no need for cold-chain storage could boost adoption. Novo’s oral amycretin leads with an 11.9% weight reduction in 12 weeks. - **Emerging Approaches:** Early-stage candidates like bimagrumab (muscle preservation) and Arrowhead’s ARO-ALK7 (RNAi therapy targeting fat genes) show promise despite higher adverse event risks.
**Risks:** Potential delays in R&D or commercialization, along with intensifying competition, may impact market dynamics.
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