After years of price wars and the digestion of low-priced orders, the wind power industry is entering a new phase of profit recovery and global expansion, but the process of cycle transition is never a straight line. When the market is accustomed to measuring the quality of leading companies by the marginal changes in single-quarter gross margins, global wind turbine leader Goldwind Science&Technology Co.,Ltd. (02208) has given its own answer with the just-released 2026 third-quarter report.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, in the first three quarters of this year, the company achieved operating revenue of 52.023 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.875 billion yuan, up 8.05% and 11.25% year-on-year respectively, with the growth rate of non-recurring net profit reaching 23.34%, showing an overall steady performance. However, in the single third quarter, revenue was 18.284 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.021 billion yuan, down 6.76% and 6.95% year-on-year respectively, with gross margin fluctuating quarter-on-quarter, and the stock price also fluctuated after the Q3 report was disclosed. On the surface, this is a Q3 report that is overall steady but weaker in the single quarter; however, what truly deserves attention is the improvement in order structure, the rise in overseas proportion, and the self-operated wind farm model, which make the certainty of subsequent profit recovery stronger. Under the dual model of a high proportion of overseas orders and rolling development of self-operated wind farms, what Goldwind demonstrates is not simply cyclical fluctuation, but a rhythm gap that a global turbine manufacturer is opening up between profit recovery and growth elasticity.
Since May, the stock price has fluctuated, while profit recovery is gradually being realized. Can Goldwind usher in a valuation recovery rally? The answer lies in the order book.
Weak Single Quarter but Steady First Three Quarters, Overseas Market Worth Watching
In the view of Zhitong Finance APP, the profit pressure in the single third quarter is the part of this earnings report most easily amplified in interpretation, but when broken down, the disturbance factors all carry obvious阶段性 characteristics. In terms of turbine delivery rhythm, third-quarter turbine shipments were about 6.6GW, basically flat quarter-on-quarter, but the short-term decline in the proportion of overseas deliveries disturbed profit for the quarter; on the cost side, rising prices of blade raw materials such as epoxy resin formed a lagged transmission; in the wind farm business, seasonal wind resources for self-operated wind farms were weak, and the company did not transfer wind farms in the third quarter, slowing the pace of profit release from the development business. In addition, the company recognized about 590 million yuan of fair value change gains in the third quarter, mainly from the fair value change gains brought by the listing of Luoyang Bearing, which was a one-time enhancement; excluding this factor, the improvement in main business profit still needs further verification through subsequent delivery rhythm, cost decline, and order structure optimization.
But looking at the year-on-year comparison from another angle, the direction becomes clear. According to the announcement, the company's non-recurring net profit growth rate of 23.34% in the first three quarters was significantly higher than the 11.25% growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders, showing that the certainty of main business improvement is strengthening. This brings us to the shift in the industry's price cycle. According to Zhitong Finance APP, in the first half of 2024, wind turbine bidding prices were at historically low levels, and a large number of low-priced orders were concentrated for delivery from the second half of 2024 to the first half of 2026, putting pressure on turbine manufacturers' gross margins; with policy guidance and strengthened industry self-discipline, wind turbine winning bid prices have gradually stabilized and rebounded since 2025. As of the end of September 2026, average winning bid prices had cumulative increased by 7% to 13% compared with two years earlier. This means that the industry's "anti-involution" has achieved phased results, and the foundation for turbine manufacturers' profit recovery is being solidified.
For Goldwind, the digestion of low-priced orders, domestic onshore turbine prices remaining high, and the rising proportion of high-margin overseas orders will jointly support subsequent gross margin improvement. The quarter-on-quarter fluctuation in third-quarter gross margin is a normal swing in delivery mix between quarters, not a trend deterioration. Moreover, profit recovery does not depend only on the rise or fall of single-quarter gross margin, but more on the structural migration happening in the order book. At the end of the third quarter, the company's total order backlog reached 56.97GW, up 8.6% year-on-year and a record high; external orders were 55.10GW, of which overseas orders were 11.05GW, up about 16% quarter-on-quarter, with their proportion rising to about 20%. The growth rate of overseas orders being higher than overall order growth means the company's revenue structure is undergoing a silent but profound migration, and the high order reserve provides strong support for subsequent revenue release while also giving profit recovery a clearer forward-looking indicator.
It is worth mentioning that overseas markets are becoming an important source for Goldwind to improve profit quality. From a longer-cycle perspective, in 2025, the company's international sales revenue reached 18.082 billion yuan, up 50.6% year-on-year, and the overseas business has gradually grown from a supplementary segment into an important growth engine. The economics of overseas business are clearly better than domestic: overseas turbine prices are generally higher than domestic ones, after-sales service demand is more rigid, and improved order structure helps raise the company's overall gross margin center. Although the EU investigation brings some uncertainty, judging from orders and installation regions, the company's overseas layout does not depend on a single region. As of the end of the third quarter of 2026, cumulative installed capacity of international business had reached 15.9GW, with projects landed in Asia, South America, and other places, while emerging markets such as the Middle East and Latin America also contributed more incremental volume. This diversified market structure reduces the impact of single policy disturbances on the overall overseas business and also enhances the sustainability of global growth.
Self-Operated Wind Farms Enhance Profit Stability
If wind turbine manufacturing determines Goldwind's revenue scale, wind farm development significantly enhances profit stability. The company has long adopted a rolling development model of "develop-operate-transfer," obtaining power generation revenue through self-built wind farms on the one hand, and selectively transferring projects after they mature on the other, recovering funds and investing them in new projects. This combines asset operation income and asset appreciation income, and can effectively smooth cyclical fluctuations in the turbine manufacturing segment. In the first three quarters of 2026, the company added 868MW of newly grid-connected equity capacity for self-operated wind farms. By the end of the third quarter, equity installed capacity reached 10.72GW, with 2.77GW under construction. No wind farm transfer was made in the third quarter, which was one reason for the profit pressure in the single quarter, but as delivery and asset transfer pace are expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter, there is still room for recovery in the full-year profit contribution from the wind farm development segment. More importantly, the rolling development model enables the company to continuously expand the scale of new energy assets without significantly increasing balance sheet pressure, forming a collaborative closed loop among "manufacturing + operation + service."
In addition to wind turbine manufacturing and wind farm development, Goldwind is also expanding its growth boundary through new businesses such as green methanol, wind-storage integration, hybrid towers, and operation and maintenance services. The Xing'an League green methanol project has entered commercial operation and locked in long-term orders of more than 750,000 tons, while the GoldFusion+ wind-storage solution and more than 50GW of in-operation service capacity together support its transformation from an equipment manufacturer to a comprehensive new energy solution provider.
The repeated decline in the stock price since May needs to be understood within the correct attribution framework. The direct trigger was not deterioration at the company's operating level, but the resonance of external policy disturbances and sector sentiment: expectations of tighter U.S. onshore wind policy, the shadow of the EU review of Chinese wind power equipment, and the market's stress reaction to single-quarter profit after the Q3 report landed jointly suppressed valuation. However, these factors are event-driven, industry-wide, and reversible in nature, and have no direct connection with Goldwind's own ability to obtain overseas orders.
The more critical observation lies in the time gap. The repeated decline in the stock price since May occurred before the formal disclosure of the data showing the overseas order proportion exceeding 20%. What the market had been trading was the quarterly fluctuation in domestic delivery rhythm and the temporary absence of wind farm transfer gains; after the earnings report landed, what investors saw was a set of contradictory information: single-quarter profit retreating while overseas orders advancing. The stock price reflects delivery results from the past two quarters, while the order book points to the revenue structure of the next two years. Multiple institutions expect the company's net profit from 2026 to 2028 to maintain growth, with the corresponding price-earnings ratio at a relatively low level, and this valuation has not yet fully reflected the improvement in profit structure brought by the overseas order proportion continuing to climb from 20%.
Overall, what Goldwind's Q3 report reflects is more the rhythm differences of a global turbine manufacturer during profit recovery. Single-quarter gross margin fluctuations, the window of no wind farm transfers, and the phased pressure on the stock price are all related to delivery rhythm and asset transfer rhythm. The structural change represented by the overseas order proportion exceeding 20% provides a clearer forward-looking clue: against the backdrop of domestic turbine prices gradually stabilizing, more than one-fifth of the company's order backlog already comes from overseas markets, which also helps improve the subsequent profit structure. More importantly, Goldwind does not rely solely on wind turbine manufacturing; the combination of "manufacturing + rolling development of self-operated wind farms + after-sales service" gives it a profit buffer even when delivery rhythm fluctuates. This gap between the stock price and order trend since May is less an endpoint than a starting point. As for whether profit recovery can be effectively realized, the rebound in fourth-quarter overseas deliveries and the recovery of wind farm transfers will be the first signals worth watching.
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