Bitcoin at $85,000: Key Threshold as Selling Pressure Eases but Hurdles Persist

Whether Bitcoin can escape persistent selling pressure and rebuild a healthy market structure hinges on whether it can effectively break through the critical supply resistance zone at $85,000.

Although recent rebounds have repeatedly stalled in the $84,000 to $85,000 range, on-chain data reveals that selling pressure is diminishing at the margin, with dip buyers beginning to absorb supply, and the market is awaiting a clear signal of trend reversal.

The underlying reason lies in the cost distribution of long-term holders.

Glassnode defines investors holding for more than 155 days as long-term holders, and analysis shows that approximately 4 million BTC was purchased in the $85,000 to $118,000 range, forming enormous potential selling pressure.

Most of these positions are currently underwater, and investors tend to exit when price approaches their entry level, thereby capping upside momentum.

On-chain data shows that realized losses have dropped sharply from $630 million at the August low to $27 million during the October 24 sell-off, indicating that panic selling is nearing its end.

Meanwhile, Binance order book data reflects that capital is migrating toward lower support levels: buy orders in the $78,000 to $79,000 range have risen to approximately $42 million, a significant increase from $24 million in mid-October, while bid-side liquidity near $80,000 has shrunk to about $3.4 million.

Traders have not fully exited but are adjusting positions in search of safer entry points.

From a structural perspective, the $77,000 to $79,000 zone constitutes important demand support.

Glassnode calculates the true market mean at approximately $77,900, with the short-term holder cost basis at about $75,800.

If Bitcoin closes below these levels on a daily basis, the current uptrend will be weakened; conversely, holding these levels would help restart the accumulation process.

The more critical variable lies in the strength of an upside breakout: if price breaks above $87,500 driven by spot demand and ETF inflows, it would confirm that buyers are absorbing existing supply and create conditions for a broader market recovery.