The current situation remains volatile; for the stock market, economic resilience is the key differentiator. While U.S. stocks are also strong, bearish voices are beginning to emerge. Goldman Sachs warned that they anticipate a potential correction in the U.S. stock market and advise investors against hastily increasing positions. Several Wall Street experts predict that after a strong rebound, U.S. stocks might face a sharp decline and enter a painful consolidation phase. This can also be seen as expectation management; it's possible Goldman Sachs has already established short positions. Chinese stock markets remain relatively stable overall. A-shares experienced a slight decline, while Hong Kong stocks opened lower but rose during the session, closing up 0.24%.
Tensions have escalated again between the U.S. and Iran, with three U.S. aircraft carriers now gathered in the Middle East. Former President Trump continues to threaten military action if Iran is unwilling to negotiate. Additionally, a significant propaganda war is underway, with claims about internal disunity within Iran, aiming to cause internal collapse. Iran has refuted these claims, with senior officials stating unity and collective resistance. Furthermore, based on principles of "reciprocal response" and "offensive deterrence," Iran has formulated counterattack plans for potential military actions by the U.S. and its allies. The situation has entered a sensitive phase again. On the evening of the 23rd, the Chinese Embassy in Iran issued a reminder for Chinese citizens to avoid traveling to Iran due to potentially extremely high security risks.
International oil prices have risen again; related stocks are discussed in the sector focus.
To combat inflation, the Trump administration plans to extend a shipping exemption allowing foreign tankers to transport oil and gasoline within U.S. waters, addressing potential supply disruptions and price increases stemming from the Iran conflict.
For the technology sector, attention remains on U.S. stocks. Overnight, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.71%, breaking through the 10,000-point milestone. It has recorded gains for 17 consecutive trading days, setting a new record for the longest winning streak. Chip manufacturing giant Intel reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings after Thursday's market close. Driven by the AI infrastructure construction wave boosting server chip demand, Intel's Q1 revenue increased 7% year-on-year, beating analyst expectations by 11%.
On April 24, OpenAI, a leader in artificial intelligence, officially released its new flagship model, GPT-5.5. Hailed by the company as "the most intelligent and intuitive model to date," its launch immediately refreshed the industry's perception of AI capabilities with its disruptive "agent" abilities and astonishing efficiency improvements. GPT-5.5 significantly reduces the token consumption required for equivalent tasks, lowering the cost per million tokens to 1/35th of the previous generation model, while increasing token output per megawatt of energy by an impressive 50 times. The exceptional efficiency of GPT-5.5 is partly attributed to deep adaptation and optimization with NVIDIA's latest-generation GPUs (such as the GB200). The GPT release stimulated gains of over 4% for Lenovo Group (00992) and VST ECS (00856), which are involved in the PC and server businesses.
Interestingly, Deepseek announced that the preview version of its new model series, DeepSeek-V4, is officially online and simultaneously open-sourced. Initial third-party benchmark results are already out. Multiple evaluations show that DeepSeek V4 performance, especially on coding tasks, places it in the top tier of open-source models, while further lowering the usage barrier for developers with "million-level context + low cost." More significantly, points mentioned in DeepSeek V4's technical report include: 1) Bandwidth has a threshold; once reached, it ceases to be the system bottleneck. 2) Demand for computation and VRAM decreases; continuing to increase bandwidth yields diminishing returns, and dedicating more chip area to improve bandwidth provides increasingly smaller benefits. This effectively redefines the design logic for next-generation AI hardware. It also mentions that the core EP scheduling solution has been verified and optimized not only on NVIDIA GPUs but also on Huawei's Ascend NPU platform. This indicates that adaptation for domestic computing power is strengthening, which might not just be a technical issue but also an ecosystem signal.
This is a significant positive development, implying a major breakthrough in addressing the "chokepoint" of computing power. It suggests the ability to bypass NVIDIA's CUDA system and transition to the CANN architecture while achieving similar results. This directly stimulates greater adoption of domestic chips by major Chinese companies. Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) surged over 15%. Nuvoton Technology (02676), SMIC (00981), and Tianshu Zhixin (09903), mentioned in yesterday's stock picks, all rose over 10%. Packaging concept ASMPT (00522) gained nearly 7%.
If chips are the brain of AI, then PCBs are the neural network connecting the brain to the body. Yesterday's mention of the positive factor of continuous price increases in the PCB sector saw Guanghe Technology (01989) surge over 10% today.
Australian mining company IGO significantly lowered the full-year production forecast for the world's largest hard-rock lithium mine, Greenbushes, from 1.5-1.65 million tons to 1.38-1.43 million tons. According to Bloomberg Intelligence data, Greenbushes accounts for about one-fifth of global lithium supply. Greenbushes is 51% owned by a joint venture between IGO and Tianqi Lithium. China primarily imports lithium carbonate from South America and Australia; domestic supply is also tightening. Starting May 2026, four core lepidolite mines in Yichun, Jiangxi will enter a phase of停产 for permit renewal. These mines were previously illegally mining lepidolite under "ceramic clay" permits and need to pay substantial resource transfer fees and complete mineral category changes, with停产 periods lasting 3-12 months.
Stimulated by these factors, Mysteel data showed today that the MMLC battery-grade lithium carbonate (morning session) price increased by 350 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, with the average price reported at 172,250 yuan/ton. Related lithium mining concepts rose accordingly. Ganfeng Lithium (01772) and Tianqi Lithium (09696) rose over 9% and 6% respectively. Leading lithium battery cathode precursor manufacturer CNGR Advanced Material (02579), which has ten-million-ton level lithium carbonate resource reserves in Argentina (though contributing profits only by 2028), rose 9% today. Longpan Technology (02465), mentioned yesterday for its planned acquisition of an Australian lithium mine, rose over 4% again today.
Several innovative drug stocks also performed strongly. Haisco Pharmaceutical (02637) has achieved profitability for five consecutive years through its generic drug business, with overall revenue and profit growing steadily. 2025 revenue reached 582 million yuan, up 25% year-on-year, with net profit reaching 177 million yuan, up 30% year-on-year. Its most advanced candidate, C019199, is即将 entering Phase III clinical trials. HXP056, with potential to be a globally significant product for treating eye diseases, is currently in Phase II trials, expected to conclude by late this year or early next, with Phase III potentially starting in 2027. The stock rose over 11% today. Other gainers included GenFleet Therapeutics (02595) and Asymchem Laboratories (06821), both up over 8%.
SECTOR FOCUS The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and continuous damage to regional infrastructure disrupting supply, tightness in the global natural gas market is expected to persist long beyond this year. In a report released Friday, the IEA noted that although new capacity is coming online, the war has delayed the long-anticipated LNG supply surplus. The impact of capacity expansion, primarily driven by the U.S., has been postponed by "at least two years." The IEA said the dual effect of short-term supply shortages and slowed capacity growth could lead to a cumulative LNG deficit of approximately 120 billion cubic meters between 2026 and 2030. Given the current situation, restoring transit through the Strait of Hormuz will take at least several months, during which natural gas will remain tight, making price increases inevitable. Main beneficiaries in Hong Kong stocks include: COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation (01138), PetroChina (00857), and CNOOC (00883).
INDIVIDUAL STOCK ANALYSIS Hans Laser (03200): Strong Q1 Earnings Growth; Expansion by Leading PCB Manufacturers to Continuously Boost Profitability The company reported Q1 revenue of 1.955 billion yuan, up 103.69% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of 323 million yuan, up 176.53% year-on-year; gross margin increased 11.81 percentage points year-on-year. Analysis: The significant Q1 growth primarily benefited from high景气度 in the PCB industry. The company is a global leader in PCB专用设备, with a 6.5% global market share in PCB equipment in 2024, ranking first in China for 16 consecutive years according to CPCA. Its domestic market share exceeds 30% in drilling equipment and over 35% in laser drilling; it serves 80% of the global top 100 PCB customers. High-end substitution is accelerating; the company holds over a 40% domestic market share in AI server high-layer boards, with prices only 60% of imported equipment. It leads globally in drilling: mechanical drilling precision reaches ±15μm; CO₂ laser drilling突破 the 35μm极限 aperture; UV laser enables 25μm精密加工. Delivery advantages: Large-scale capacity +完善的 supply chain result in significantly shorter delivery cycles compared to European, American, and Japanese manufacturers. Global布局: The company has established subsidiaries/service centers in Southeast Asia; overseas revenue accounted for 13% in 2024, benefiting from产能外迁. PCB expansion in Thailand/Vietnam allows the company to capture incremental markets with localized services. The company has initiated cooperation verification with downstream mainstream manufacturers, completed sampling with most, and is progressing quickly with some. In 2025, products like the third-generation positioning system automated mechanical drilling machine, four-beam dual-table CO2 laser drilling machine, and automated shaping machine will see further performance improvements, significantly increasing utilization rates in PCB manufacturing processes and reducing comprehensive production costs. The laser drilling machine配套 for the M9 solution has passed NVIDIA certification, with mass shipments expected in 2026. A wave of capacity expansion by PCB manufacturers is即将启动. Benefiting from expansion by leading PCB makers, management expects the revenue contribution from AI business to increase from about 30% in 2025 to about 60% in 2026 (Shengyi Technology contributing 20%, other manufacturers 40%). Hans Laser has sufficient orders on hand and is producing and delivering in an orderly manner. The company fully focuses on the AI computing power scenario industry chain while also布局 advanced packaging, optical modules/CPO, and other前沿 sectors.
Comments