Abstract
Peloton Interactive, Inc. will report Q2 FY2026 results on February 05, 2026, Pre-Market; this preview outlines expected revenue, margins, EPS, segment dynamics, and consensus views for the upcoming quarter based on the latest available company forecast and prior-quarter actuals.
Market Forecast
Based on Peloton Interactive, Inc.’s latest forecast set, the current quarter revenue estimate is USD 674.11 million with an estimated year-over-year growth of 3.07%, EPS is projected at USD -0.06 with an estimated year-over-year improvement of 64.37%, and EBIT is forecast at USD 0.40 million with an estimated year-over-year increase of 101.06%. The company’s outlook suggests subscription-led stability while connected fitness hardware remains a swing factor; the most promising segment is Subscriptions at USD 398.40 million last quarter, implied resilience and likely positive YoY momentum supported by higher gross margin contribution.
Last Quarter Review
Peloton Interactive, Inc. posted Q1 FY2026 revenue of USD 550.80 million, gross profit margin of 51.51%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 13.90 million, net profit margin of 2.52%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.03, with revenue down 6.01% year over year. A notable highlight was positive GAAP profitability, though net profit fell quarter-on-quarter by 35.65%, indicating margin sensitivity to revenue mix and cost cadence. Main business performance showed Subscriptions revenue of USD 398.40 million and Connected Fitness Products revenue of USD 152.40 million; Subscriptions represented 72.33% of total revenue, underscoring the scale and importance of recurring revenue.
Current Quarter Outlook
Subscriptions (Main Business)
Subscriptions remain the anchor of Peloton Interactive, Inc.’s earnings model, contributing USD 398.40 million in the most recent quarter and accounting for 72.33% of total revenue. The subscription business typically carries higher gross margin than hardware, and the prior quarter’s consolidated gross margin of 51.51% suggests robust unit economics that are likely to support cash generation even if top-line growth is modest. With the company forecasting consolidated revenue growth of 3.07% year over year and a near-breakeven EBIT of USD 0.40 million, subscription retention, engagement, and price/mix are decisive variables for maintaining margin quality. The trajectory of churn and the effectiveness of content updates and platform features will be central to sustaining subscriber value, while promotional strategies must balance acquisition against margin dilution.
Connected Fitness Products (Most Promising Growth Lever)
Connected Fitness Products delivered USD 152.40 million last quarter and remains the most volatile lever for revenue acceleration or disappointment due to hardware demand elasticity and promotional intensity. Hardware units and accessory attach rates can drive incremental revenue, yet they carry lower margin relative to subscriptions, which complicates consolidated profitability. If macro consumer demand stabilizes and supply chain costs stay contained, connected fitness sales could provide quarter-on-quarter uplift; however, the company’s forecasted EPS of USD -0.06 implies ongoing pressure from mix, discounting, or investment in growth. Executing disciplined inventory management and aligning product bundles to improve lifetime value can help translate hardware sales into durable subscription adds, supporting medium-term margin recovery.
Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Investors will focus on the relationship between gross margin quality and the mix between subscriptions and hardware, with the prior quarter’s 51.51% gross margin serving as a benchmark for operational effectiveness. The forecast implies near-flat EBIT and negative EPS, so cost discipline—particularly in marketing, content, and logistics—will be essential to defend profitability metrics. Any update to subscriber growth, churn trends, pricing initiatives, or product roadmap timing could shift sentiment quickly, while guidance for full-year margin and cash trajectory will shape expectations more than top-line variations. The quarter-on-quarter decline in net profit of 35.65% last quarter highlights sensitivity to small shifts in revenue or cost, making forward commentary on operating leverage a potential swing factor.
Analyst Opinions
The prevailing stance among institutional commentators in recent months has reflected cautious to neutral views, centered on subdued profitability signals and the balance between subscription stability and hardware volatility. Analysts focusing on Peloton Interactive, Inc. generally point to the subscription base as a supportive foundation but remain wary of EPS and EBIT softness implied by the company’s own forecast for the current quarter (EPS at USD -0.06 and EBIT at USD 0.40 million), reinforcing a wait-and-see posture. Consensus expectations appear to align with low single-digit top-line growth and marginal operating profit, suggesting that the majority view anticipates modest revenue improvement without a definitive margin inflection. Where sell-side commentary is constructive, it typically emphasizes potential for engagement-driven upsells and better cost control to narrow losses; more cautious takes flag sensitivity to promotional dynamics, the durability of demand for connected hardware, and the challenge of translating subscriber resilience into consistent GAAP profitability. In aggregate, the majority perspective remains watchful for signals that subscription-led scale and operating efficiencies can offset hardware variability enough to deliver sustained EPS improvement beyond the near-term forecast.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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