On Wednesday, October 21, international gold prices experienced a highly volatile session, ultimately rebounding from the lows to close higher with a long lower shadow, continuing to trade above the ascending trendline while facing resistance at the Bollinger Band midline. The short-term outlook still requires further consolidation before a clear direction emerges.
Fluctuating oil prices also contributed to the back-and-forth movement in gold, though a weaker US dollar index and declining US Treasury yields provided some support, helping the metal rebound and close in positive territory.
Specifically, gold opened the Asian session at $4,126.36 per ounce and traded in a choppy range throughout the day. Volatility intensified during the US session, and in late trading, prices first plunged to an intraday low of $4,104.91 before rebounding to an intraday high of $4,141.87, eventually settling at $4,141.03. The daily range was $36.96, with a gain of $14.67, or 0.36%.
Looking ahead to Thursday, October 22: international gold opened lower directly and quickly erased Wednesday's gains in early trading, once again testing support near the ascending trendline. The weakening US dollar index and Treasury yields failed to provide a lift, while elevated oil prices and renewed tensions in the Middle East added to uncertainty. The market-implied probability of a December rate hike stands at 90%, keeping bullish confidence fragile.
During the day, traders will monitor US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 17 and the US September Conference Board leading indicators monthly rate, among other data. Market expectations lean toward being supportive for gold, so attention should be paid to the pullback strength during the day session, with dip-buying still a viable approach. The broader short-term picture remains range-bound, offering opportunities for both bulls and bears.
Recently, the latest US inflation data combined with high oil prices have reignited market concerns that restrictive interest rate levels may persist far longer than previously anticipated. The US 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5%, exerting significant pressure on gold.
However, gold remains supported by long-term tailwinds such as inflation and currency depreciation, along with continued gold purchases by central banks worldwide, particularly the People's Bank of China's sustained buying, which provides important structural support to the gold market. As the year-end approaches, there are few signs that official gold-buying demand will recede. Therefore, the current consolidation can be viewed as building strength for a more powerful rally ahead.
Technical Analysis
On the weekly chart, gold prices have halted their decline and rebounded near the support of the ascending trend channel that began in 2024 for two consecutive weeks, drawing parallels to the price action seen between April and August 2025. As long as prices continue to consolidate above this support, the possibility of another rally after the correction remains intact.
However, resistance overhead is significant. While anticipating a bullish rebound, caution is warranted regarding the extent of gains. Resistance is noted near the Bollinger Band midline at $4,225 and the 60-week moving average at $4,370. On the downside, attention should be paid to the strength of trendline support; a break below would open the door to the channel support zone between $3,900 and $3,700 for positioning toward new highs.
On the daily chart, gold's recent rebounds have repeatedly encountered resistance at the Bollinger Band midline, and with multiple moving averages acting as overhead barriers, bears maintain the upper hand. Although prices are currently oscillating above the trendline, a pullback to lower levels remains possible before any breakout above resistance. The short-term bias remains for continued weak consolidation. Traders may follow the breakout direction accordingly.
The following are preliminary intraday support and resistance levels for reference, with actual entry and exit points subject to real-time notifications:
Gold: Downside support near $4,105 or $4,090; upside resistance near $4,135 or $4,160.
Silver: Downside support near $57.00 or $56.45; upside resistance near $57.90 or $58.50.
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