Key Points
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that negotiations with Iran have made some progress, and the United States will give the diplomatic approach "every opportunity to succeed." However, Rubio also noted that if negotiations fail, President Trump has other options available—a clear reference to the potential resumption of military strikes.
On Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the United States will give negotiations with Iran "every opportunity to succeed," leading to an immediate drop in international oil prices. As of 12:35 PM Eastern Time, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures plunged over 4% to $89.93 per barrel, while the international benchmark Brent crude fell nearly 4% to $95.68 per barrel. Speaking at a White House cabinet meeting, Rubio indicated that U.S.-Iran negotiations have achieved some progress. He stated that President Trump prefers a diplomatic resolution but emphasized that if diplomacy fails, the U.S. has other alternatives—widely interpreted as a possible return to military action. "The bottom line is, we prioritize a diplomatic solution through negotiations and will give it every opportunity to succeed," the Secretary of State said. Iranian state television reported that Tehran has committed to restoring commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within one month of reaching an agreement with the United States. The report also noted that Iran will manage vessel traffic through the strait in coordination with Oman, with related negotiations still ongoing. However, the White House later issued a statement on social media, calling the report about a memorandum of understanding "completely fabricated." This week, U.S.-Iran tensions have oscillated between "reaching an agreement" and "military escalation": U.S. forces conducted strikes in southern Iran, which the Pentagon described as "defensive in nature," while Iran vowed retaliation. Industry insiders remain skeptical about the oil market's ability to quickly return to pre-war levels. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, stated last week that even if the U.S.-Iran conflict ends immediately, it would take at least four months to restore crude flow to 80% of normal levels, with a full return to normalcy not expected until the first or second quarter of 2027.
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