CICC: Boxboard and Corrugated Paper Profits Expected to Improve in Q4 2025, Year-End Price Hike Anticipated

According to industry data, as of November 28, the prices of offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard stood at 4,733, 4,742, and 4,214 yuan per ton, respectively, showing weekly changes of +2, -28, and 0 yuan per ton, and year-on-year changes of -379, -598, and +447 yuan per ton. The price increases for boxboard, corrugated paper, and wastepaper began in July, initially driven by rising domestic wastepaper costs and later supported by peak season demand, coupled with production halts and price hike notices from leading manufacturers.

From a profit-per-ton perspective, CICC expects improvements in Q4 2025, though gains may be capped below 100 yuan due to rising raw material and energy costs. Product mix, such as high-end kraft paper with self-produced fiber, could further differentiate profit margins among companies.

In the pulp-based paper segment, cultural paper output declined year-on-year in the first ten months, with potential pricing and profit pressures expected in 2026. Meanwhile, white cardboard continues to face supply-demand imbalances, with weak fundamentals limiting sustained price hikes.

Key data highlights: - Pulp prices: Softwood and hardwood pulp were at 5,453 and 4,394 yuan per ton as of November 28, with weekly changes of -124 and +47 yuan per ton. - Wastepaper segment: Waste corrugated paper rose to 1,906 yuan per ton (+12 weekly, +371 yearly), while boxboard and corrugated paper reached 3,892 and 3,216 yuan per ton (+10 and +9 weekly, +257 and +494 yearly). - Inventory levels: Corrugated paper inventories remain elevated, while enterprise stockpiles are relatively low.

CICC maintains a short-term preference for ND PAPER (02689) and a long-term positive outlook on Shandong Sun Paper Co.,Ltd. (002078). Risks include weaker-than-expected demand, supply surges, and pulp price volatility.