On May 11th, the cryptocurrency market continued its strong performance, with Bitcoin trading steadily between $80,000 and $81,000 per coin. Since the beginning of May, it has accumulated a gain of approximately 5%. If the month closes with a gain, it will establish a pattern of three consecutive months of positive returns in March, April, and May. The NCE platform stated that BTC has recovered significantly from its previous lows, with the continuation of the bullish structure being driven by sustained institutional capital inflows and reasonable leverage levels. The institution's analysis indicates that key signals monitored by professional investors consistently point to the next critical target level near $85,200 per coin.
From a market structure perspective, perpetual contract funding rates have shifted from negative to neutral, indicating a clear release of previous short-selling pressure. NCE platform believes that market makers hold short gamma exposure around $82,000 per coin. A price increase could trigger hedging-related buying, providing further upward momentum. The institution judges that if Bitcoin can close above $80,000 in May, it would confirm a new bull market pattern based on historical trends. Analysts emphasize that three consecutive months of positive closes have never historically occurred during a bear market, and the overall capital structure remains healthy.
On the macro level, changes in the Federal Reserve Chair's term and potential policy adjustments at the June FOMC meeting introduce uncertainty for the subsequent market, significantly increasing the probability of data-driven market movements. Institutions observe that long-term holder positions remain relatively stable, miner selling pressure is moderate, and the market structure shows no significant deterioration. Marginal changes in stablecoin market capitalization, trends in perpetual contract funding rates, on-chain active address data, and shifts in miner holdings are also crucial observation windows for gauging institutional sentiment and leverage levels in the crypto market. A comprehensive assessment combining multi-dimensional data is advisable. For long-term participants, focusing on whether weekly closes can hold key levels provides far more guidance than intraday volatility, and attention should be paid to the relative performance of Bitcoin spot prices versus gold. Observing across multiple timeframes helps filter out market noise.
The NCE platform anticipates that Bitcoin may continue to test higher within the range of $78,000 to $85,000 per coin in the short term, with directional moves more likely driven by macroeconomic data and institutional capital behavior. The institution emphasizes that the high volatility and leverage sensitivity of crypto assets require investors to prioritize risk budgeting and position control. Monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy path, treasury yield trends, regulatory developments, and spot ETF fund flows is essential. Avoiding excessive trading driven by one-sided sentiment and adapting to market turning points with a rational pace is advised.
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