The standoff between the US and Iran is hardening into a prolonged economic and maritime war of attrition. With Washington intensifying maximum economic pressure and Tehran attaching stringent conditions to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, global shipping leaders caution that markets are significantly underestimating the risk of a long-term geopolitical impasse.
According to reports, President Trump stated on August 26 that there is "no timetable" for Iran's return to negotiations, asserting that sanctions are pushing the Iranian economy toward collapse. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman have reached a preliminary framework for establishing a secure passage in the Strait of Hormuz, but Iranian officials emphasize that a full reopening of the strait is contingent on the US correcting its mistakes and fulfilling all previous commitments.
This diplomatic gridlock is directly impacting global energy and shipping markets. Jacob Meldgaard, CEO of Danish tanker operator Torm, warned that the market seriously underestimates the risk of this conflict evolving into a Ukraine-style protracted standoff that could last months or even years.
Amid the complex situation, Washington's pressure strategy is shifting focus. US officials reveal that in the short term, America does not plan to launch a new round of military strikes against Iran. Instead, it aims to enforce economic isolation through naval blockades and fresh sanctions while striving to maintain stable crude supply in global energy markets.
Escalating Economic Pressure and US-Iran Bilateral Friction
The Trump administration is attempting to force Iranian concessions through economic warfare. In an interview with Al Jazeera, Trump stated he is "in no rush" for Iran to return to negotiations, emphasizing that economic measures are as effective as military strikes. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced a new round of sanctions targeting Iran's economic isolation on August 24. In response, Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that given Iran's precautionary measures, the current US economic pressure will yield no results, much like its wartime efforts.
Washington's policy focus has shifted from military confrontation to a long-term standoff. Secretary of State Rubio recently briefed allied foreign ministers on the new Iran policy, which involves avoiding military action for now while ramping up economic pressure through naval blockades and sanctions, while reserving the right to respond if Iran attacks first. Reports indicate the State Department is preparing to send evacuated diplomats back to the Middle East as soon as this week, signaling that Washington expects no full-scale war in the region in the near term.
Stringent and Uncertain Conditions for Strait Reopening
Despite surface-level signs of de-escalation, a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains far off.
Omani Foreign Minister Badr and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi have agreed on a phased framework to establish a mutually agreed safe shipping corridor and mine clearance protocol. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi noted this is only a temporary measure to allow merchant vessel passage, with technical talks on permanent routes to be held within 30 to 60 days.
Gharibabadi also laid out tough conditions for reopening the strait, including ending all hostilities across all fronts including Lebanon, lifting blockades, resolving the Yemen issue, and requiring the US to fully honor its unfulfilled commitments. Regarding Trump's claims that US forces have cleared mines and adopted "zero tolerance" for new mining activities, Gharibabadi dismissed these as "propaganda lies to soothe market sentiment," warning that Iran would strike US minesweepers entering the area.
Shipping Industry Warns of Underestimated Long-Term Stalemate Risk
The maritime security crisis is fundamentally reshaping the cost structure of global shipping.
Jacob Meldgaard of Danish tanker group Torm warned that the situation is evolving into a Ukraine-style protracted standoff. He pointed out that markets mistakenly believed economic disruption would force a quick resolution, but in reality, this confrontation is more likely to persist for months or even years.
Sustained conflict and risk premiums are boosting shipping company profits. Torm reported record second-quarter net profit of $338 million, roughly six times the year-ago figure. Meldgaard revealed that Gulf states are heavily purchasing tankers to expand their fleets to ensure crude oil and fuel continue to safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Due to significantly reduced operational efficiency, maintaining pre-war export volumes may require double the number of crude supertankers and triple the number of large product tankers. He stated bluntly that expecting global shipping conditions to return to their state of a decade ago in the foreseeable future is an "unrealistic fantasy."
Diplomatic Stagnation and Potential Military Conflict Risk Coexist
Despite sporadic indirect contacts, the fundamental rift between the US and Iran remains unbridged.
Pakistan's Army Chief Munir recently visited Tehran, conveying Washington's message urging Iran to return to the diplomatic track. However, senior Iranian lawmaker Abbas Golroo criticized the US for threatening Iran while simultaneously sending negotiation signals, calling it a "double standard." Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has also publicly stated that a US-Iran diplomatic agreement is impossible.
With diplomatic efforts stalled, Iran's military is accelerating its strategic posture adjustment. Iranian Army spokesman Akraminia told media that Iran's military strategy has shifted from defense to offense, with new operational plans prepared for potential future conflicts. According to analysts, although direct hostilities have largely cooled, diplomatic channels for reaching a peace agreement remain blocked, and shipping and geopolitical risks in the region are unlikely to dissipate in the near term.
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