On Tuesday, April 28, international gold prices fell, closing lower. Prices continued to be influenced by U.S.-Iran tensions, as Iran indicated it does not believe the conflict has ended. Gold moved further away from the 100-day moving average, with significantly increased volatility compared to previous sessions and stronger selling pressure. Although prices stopped declining and rebounded as expected upon touching support near the 144-day moving average, failure to climb back above the 100-day moving average could lead to a further retreat toward the 200-day moving average, around the $4,300 level.
In specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4,684.95 per ounce, initially rising to a daily high of $4,701.05 before encountering resistance and declining steadily. The drop continued into the late European session, reaching a daily low of $4,554.55. Prices then found support and rebounded, ultimately closing at $4,596.92. The daily trading range was $146.50, with a loss of $88.03, or 1.88%.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, April 29, international gold opened with continued weakness. The previous day’s decline increased technical selling pressure, weighing on prices. Although market reports suggest Iran is expected to soon submit a revised peace proposal, and President Trump noted Iran wants the U.S. to quickly reopen the Strait of Hormuz, mutual dissatisfaction with each other’s proposals makes a near-term agreement unlikely. As a result, the market has yet to respond, leaving gold in a weak adjustment phase.
Currently, crude oil is trading above its middle Bollinger Band and short-term moving averages, with technical indicators strengthening, suggesting a bullish rebound. The U.S. dollar index is fluctuating around its 200-day moving average but is also expected to rebound, which would overall weigh on gold prices. Therefore, gold remains weak intraday, with selling on rallies being the preferred strategy.
Additionally, this week’s focus will be on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting and Chair Powell’s press conference. Key data releases include the U.S. March core PCE price index annual rate and the preliminary U.S. Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate. Current expectations are generally bearish for gold. Thus, at the start of the week, gold faces greater pressure from these expectations than from U.S.-Iran tensions. If the Fed meeting and remarks are dovish and data underperforms, gold may stage a phased rebound, potentially retesting $4,800 or $5,000. Conversely, prices could retreat again to test support near the 200-day moving average, around $4,300.
Technically, on a monthly chart, gold closed above an upward trend line in March, maintaining a bullish outlook. April’s opening also remains above this trend line. As long as prices do not close below this line, further new highs are anticipated. On a weekly chart, gold fell last week, remaining below the 10-week moving average. This week, it retreated as expected to around $4,550, a previously identified downside target. Failure to rebound and break above the 10-week moving average resistance could lead to further adjustment toward $4,400.
On a daily chart, gold declined as expected yesterday, touching support at the 144-day moving average and stabilizing with a rebound. However, it remains below the 100-day moving average and the middle Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Bands are expanding downward, indicating increased bearish momentum. Support at this level will be critical; a break lower could lead to a test of the 200-day moving average. Before that, a rebound is possible. Resistance lies at the short-term moving averages and the 100-day moving average. Until fundamental factors turn fully supportive, selling on rallies is advisable.
Intraday trading guidance should be followed via live account updates. Preliminary intraday reference points are provided below; exact entry and exit points will depend on real-time account notifications.
Gold: Support at $4,560 or $4,500; resistance at $4,635 or $4,665. Silver: Support at $74.45 or $73.30; resistance at $77.20 or $78.10.
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