Bitcoin climbed against the macro tightening backdrop of continued Federal Reserve rate hikes, rising from roughly $58,000 in summer to a September high of $86,000, an anomalous move that has drawn deep market attention.
Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, and Chris Giancarlo, former chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, separately broke down this phenomenon, which defies traditional financial logic, from the perspectives of micro liquidity and macro fiscal policy.
The core conflict lies in why BTC has instead shown strong upward momentum under expectations of tightening dollar liquidity, with both experts pointing to a fundamental shift in the supply-demand structure.
Sigel attributed the nearly $30,000 price gain to the complete exhaustion of selling pressure rather than any single major event.
Multiple technical indicators tracked by VanEck triggered bullish signals during the summer, confirming the judgment that market selling pressure had dried up.
Notably, the U.S. Treasury's subsequently announced bond buyback program further catalyzed the price rebound.
From a correlation analysis standpoint, BTC lacks a sustained positive correlation with bond yields, yet shows a negative correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and a positive correlation with money supply.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that M2 money supply began accelerating three quarters ago, and BTC typically reacts to such liquidity changes with a lag, providing positive support for its medium-term trajectory.
Although Sigel warned that a high interest rate environment pressures any asset, he noted that BTC is currently holding near $78,000 and standing above the 50-week moving average, a key "line in the sand," keeping the technical picture optimistic.
Additionally, as options trading dominance faded last week, demand for spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT.US) is expected to recover, thereby reshaping market structure.
Giancarlo, in a September 24 interview with Bitcoin Magazine, revealed the hidden inflation logic behind rate hikes from a macro fiscal perspective.
He argued that Fed rate hikes directly force the government to bear higher debt interest costs, compelling it to issue more bonds to keep operating, which in turn intensifies market concerns about long-term fiat currency debasement.
Against a backdrop of massive government spending and policymakers' difficulty in controlling excessive money printing, BTC highlights its unique scarcity value due to its preset supply cap.
Giancarlo compared BTC to gold, emphasizing its role as a safe haven for scarce assets outside the fiat currency system.
When increased financing demand overlaps with expectations of currency debasement, assets whose supply cannot be arbitrarily expanded by policymakers, such as BTC, become significantly more attractive.
This analysis based on fiscal sustainability explains why BTC's rebound during a rate hike cycle is not contradictory, but rather a rational hedge against fiat credit dilution.
Overall, the current market presents a dual characteristic of optimistic technical signals and self-consistent macro logic.
BTC's price stabilizing above the 50-week moving average validates the effectiveness of an important support level from previous market cycles.
Sigel noted that the current rebound strictly conforms to Bitcoin's four-year cyclical pattern, and market volatility has already declined by about 50%.
As institutional investors' adoption of BTC continues to increase, this institutionalization trend is expected to further suppress volatility, gradually detaching BTC from its label as a high-volatility speculative asset and evolving it toward a more stable macro allocation asset.
This shift not only consolidates BTC's position within the existing financial system but also provides a new reference framework for asset pricing under complex macro environments in the future.
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