Oil Prices Narrow Weekly Losses Amid Sanctions and Oversupply Concerns

Oil prices rose, trimming losses for a second consecutive week as the market weighed the potential impact of sanctions on Russia against looming oversupply concerns.

U.S. crude futures rebounded above $60 per barrel but remained on track for a weekly decline. Stock market volatility this week further pressured oil prices, exacerbating fears of oversupply.

Meanwhile, the White House imposed restrictions on Russian crude purchases, prompting trading giant Gunvor Group to withdraw its bid for Lukoil PJSC's international assets, including stakes in oilfields, refineries, and gas stations. The ultimate ownership of these assets remains uncertain.

Industry experts warn that the latest U.S. sanctions on two major Russian oil firms are already affecting markets, particularly in diesel—where prices have risen steadily in recent days. The time spreads, which reflect supply-demand dynamics, indicate tightening supply pressures.

These sanctions come amid a broader crude oversupply, which has weighed on key oil benchmarks. On Thursday, the spread between near-month and later-month WTI crude futures contracts narrowed to its lowest level since February.

Both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers are expected to significantly boost output from late this year through 2026. The IEA predicts record oversupply during this period. While rising tanker shipments signal excess supply, major storage hubs have yet to show significant strain. U.S. crude inventories declined slightly by late October from early-month levels.

Ole Hvalbye, a commodity analyst at SEB AB, noted, "The market is still balancing expanding crude surpluses against mixed macroeconomic signals. Technically, Brent remains in a normal pullback phase within its broader uptrend."

In Asia, China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, reported higher year-on-year crude imports for October. However, expectations of slower stockpiling growth may weaken price support.

Next week, traders will monitor reports from the IEA and OPEC for further clarity on supply-demand dynamics as year-end approaches.