Heightened supply disruptions in copper mines since 2025, coupled with China's electrolytic aluminum output hitting its ceiling and sluggish power infrastructure delaying overseas project commissioning, have created a complex market backdrop. The resumption of tin mining operations in Myanmar's Wa State is progressing slowly due to aging equipment, tunnel collapses, and drainage issues. A comprehensive reassessment of the value of strategic metals—including copper, aluminum, cobalt, nickel, tin, antimony, tungsten, and rare earths—is warranted.
Key events underpinning this view include: (1) On January 13, 2026, Australia announced a A$1.2 billion critical minerals strategic reserve plan, with A$185 million allocated for mineral stockpiling as needed, prioritizing antimony, gallium, and rare earths. (2) On December 5, 2025, the European Commission adopted the Resource Renaissance Action Plan, aiming to raise €3 billion to implement supply chain strategies and establish a critical raw materials platform to support stockpiling. (3) In October 2025, the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) announced plans to purchase $500 million worth of cobalt, $245 million of antimony, $100 million of tantalum, and $45 million of scandium.
The significance of investment opportunities arising from national strategic metal stockpiling initiatives cannot be overstated. Since 2025, Western nations have markedly increased their focus on "critical mineral resources." The cumulative procurement volumes from announced U.S. and Australian stockpiling plans alone account for approximately 3% of global cobalt production in 2024, 12% for tantalum, an estimated 8% for antimony, and an estimated 14% for gallium.
Investment opportunities are particularly pronounced in metals falling into these categories: (1) Those with supply highly concentrated in South America or single countries/regions, posing supply chain security risks, such as cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), copper and lithium from South America, and nickel from Indonesia. (2) Metals crucial for AI and the energy transition, like copper, aluminum, and tin for AI infrastructure; copper, aluminum, and silver for new energy; and tin, gallium, indium, and germanium for semiconductors. (3) Metals with military applications, such as tungsten, antimony, and rare earths.
The mineral supply of copper, lithium, cobalt, and nickel is exceptionally concentrated in South America, the DRC, and Indonesia. In 2024, combined copper output from Chile and Peru constituted 35% of the global total, while the DRC accounted for 76% of global cobalt production (the DRC implemented an export quota system in 2025). Chile, Argentina, and Brazil together contributed 33% of global lithium output, and Indonesia produced 60% of the world's nickel.
Copper, aluminum, and tin are supply-constrained metals vital for AI and the energy transition. The rapid advancement of AI will drive massive data center construction, significantly boosting demand for copper, aluminum, and tin; however, supply for all three faces significant constraints.
Tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are militarily significant metals with tight supply. Tungsten is used in armor-piercing shell cores, antimony enhances alloy hardness for missile warheads, and rare earths are essential for radar electronics and stealth materials for fighter jets. While China holds a dominant position in tungsten, antimony, and rare earths, their production has declined notably in recent years due to: 1) decreasing ore grades; 2) implementation of production quota systems for tungsten and rare earths; and 3) stricter controls over illegal over-mining.
Specific investment recommendations are as follows: For copper, Everbright recommends Zijin Mining Group, China Molybdenum Co., and Western Mining Co.; for aluminum, it recommends Yunnan Aluminium Co., suggesting attention to Aluminum Corporation of China Limited; for cobalt and nickel, it recommends Huayou Cobalt, suggesting attention to Lygend Resources and Shengtun Mining Group; for tungsten, attention to China Tungsten and Hightech Co.; for tin, it recommends Yunnan Tin Co., suggesting attention to Xingye Silver Tin Mining; for antimony, attention to Huaxi Nonferrous Metals; for rare earths, it recommends China Northern Rare Earth, suggesting attention to China Rare Earth.
Potential risks include stockpiling progress falling short of expectations and demand failing to meet forecasts.
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