The third quarter is traditionally a slow season for beauty, medical aesthetics, and retail, and amid a mix of factors including the consumption environment, industry landscape, platform ecosystems, and gold price volatility, near-term pressure continues across the three major segments of beauty, medical aesthetics, and gold jewelry chains, with profit-side pressure generally exceeding revenue-side pressure, according to a research report from CITIC SEC (ASX: 06030).
At present, companies are actively adjusting product structures and organizational frameworks, laying the groundwork for a second growth curve and building momentum for a return to healthy growth. The main views of Citic Securities Company Limited (ASX: 600030) are as follows.
Beauty: Q3 2026 Revenue Growth Expected to Be Slightly Below First Half, Net Margins Under Further Pressure
According to National Bureau of Statistics data, in July, August, and September 2026, cosmetics retail sales above designated size grew by 6.8%, 4.9%, and 5.4% year-on-year respectively, with cumulative growth of 6.1% for January-September, slightly below the 6.3% growth recorded for January-June. According to Jiuqian data, in July, August, and September 2026, online beauty GMV (covering the three major platforms of Tmall, Douyin, and JD.com, including skincare and color cosmetics categories) stood at 15.4 billion yuan, 21.6 billion yuan, and 19.6 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year changes of -2%, +1%, and -6%.
Additionally, based on the bank's analysis of online beauty sales data across Tmall, Douyin, and JD.com for January-September 2026, domestic traditional Chinese brands face considerable pressure in skincare, while emerging brands and white-label products are growing rapidly; in color cosmetics, the share of white-label products has risen notably, with domestic color cosmetics brands showing significant divergence. At the same time, comprehensive operating costs including online content marketing and traffic acquisition have further increased, and the bank expects profit-side pressure for listed beauty companies in Q3 2026 to be more pronounced than in the first half.
Medical Aesthetics: Registration Certificates Accelerating, Upstream Competition Intensifying, Performance Generally Under Pressure; Downstream Benefits from Enhanced Bargaining Power and Improved Landscape, Delivering Solid Results, with Q3 2026 Generally Slightly Weaker Than H1 2026 on a Quarterly Basis
As of October 12, 2026, newly added registration certificates for the year included +16 for hyaluronic acid, +11 for collagen, +5 for poly-L-lactic acid filler, +2 for botulinum toxin, +9 for skin boosters, +2 for少女针, and +1 for CaHA. With the increase in registration certificates, upstream competition has intensified, and listed companies are all facing pricing pressure and market share pressure.
Gold Jewelry Chains: Sales Strongly Correlated with Gold Prices, Industry Continues Net Store Closures
According to National Bureau of Statistics data, in July, August, and September 2026, gold jewelry retail sales above designated size declined by 10.1%, 17.5%, and 9.6% year-on-year respectively, with the estimated third-quarter decline roughly comparable to the second quarter; gold prices showed an "A-shaped" trend in the third quarter, and sales of high-gross-margin products such as fixed-price items may have fared better than in the second quarter.
Miniso: Q3 2026 Domestic Sales Exceed Company's Prior Guidance
Company announcement: In Q3 2026, mainland China GMV grew 25%-30% year-on-year (approximately +21.3% in H1 2026), with GMV growth significantly accelerating compared to H1 2026. On a same-store basis, mainland China operations achieved high-single-digit growth in Q3 2026 (mid-single-digit growth in H1 2026), with same-store growth also significantly accelerating compared to H1 2026. Meanwhile, during the National Day holiday period (October 1-7), mainland China GMV grew 20%-25% year-on-year, with same-store sales achieving low-single-digit growth.
Investment Strategy
1. Beauty sector: Recommended targets include: 1) leading domestic color cosmetics brands positioned in the high-end segment with significant track advantages, scarce investment targets, strong growth certainty, and solid Double Eleven sales growth, as well as leaders in the oil-based skincare track; 2) targets whose main brands are expected to return to healthy growth while accelerating multi-brand, multi-category, multi-domain, and group-based expansion with a clear second growth curve; 3) targets with significantly improved operations and recovering net margins.
2. Medical aesthetics sector: The industry is growing steadily, with structural opportunities persisting. On the upstream side, targets with operational, channel, and ecosystem platform capabilities, as well as continuously improving product matrices, are recommended; on the downstream side, targets benefiting from industry dividends are favored.
3. Gold jewelry chain sector: Recommended targets include: 1) those positioned as global luxury platforms with strong performance in both fixed-price and gram-weight gold products; 2) targets with high elasticity amid rising gold prices; 3) targets with continuously optimized product and store structures maintaining high growth in the Hong Kong market; 4) targets in a fundamental improvement channel, at low market valuations, with high dividend yields.
Risk factors: Weakening domestic and international purchasing power; product development and turnover efficiency falling short of expectations; existing store sales below expectations; new store format expansion below expectations; intense IP competition leading to performance below expectations; company expense control falling short of expectations; agent market adjustments below expectations.
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