While American households have grown increasingly pessimistic about the economy, corporate executives have been signaling a more optimistic outlook on growth and resilience during earnings calls.
In 2025, "affordability" became a central topic of public debate, and the average American's perception of the economy grew progressively darker. However, an analysis by The Washington Post of the language used by S&P 500 company executives on earnings calls reveals a significant shift in the narrative from America's leading corporations—by year-end, earlier warnings of an economic downturn had been replaced by more positive corporate messaging.
The analysis shows that in earnings calls from last September through early December, executives frequently used keywords such as "growth," "resilience," and "expansion," while increasingly highlighting artificial intelligence as a key engine for future growth. This shift in tone compared to the start of the year, along with the specific points they chose to emphasize as circumstances evolved, provides a window into how large corporations currently assess the economic landscape.
"There was a marked rebound in business confidence over the summer," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. "What we're seeing is business leaders learning to navigate through the uncertainty and disruption."
A chart illustrates the frequency of different categories of words used in Q2 and Q3 2025 earnings calls. Words related to "resilience" were mentioned most frequently and saw a quarter-over-quarter increase; words related to "growth" were second most mentioned and also increased. The total mentions for the other four categories were similar but showed different trends: the use of AI-related terms rose, government-related terms remained largely flat, while terms related to uncertainty, trade, and the economy all declined.
Eight out of nine words representing "growth" or "resilience" saw increased usage in the third quarter...
Growth-related: accelerate, growth Resilience-related: strong, growth, resilient, strengthen, momentum, solid, sustainable
Meanwhile, the frequency of words related to trade, uncertainty, and the economy decreased.
Trade-related: trade, tariffs Economy-related: economy, environment, landscape Uncertainty-related: uncertainty, relief, supply chain
Word Category | Q2 Frequency | Q3 Frequency ---|---|--- Growth-related | 5K | Increased Resilience-related | 10K | Increased Trade-related | 5K | Decreased Economy-related | 5K | Decreased Uncertainty-related | 5K | Decreased AI-related | 5K | Increased
Earlier in the year, as a wave of tariffs introduced in the spring rattled markets and businesses, executives repeatedly warned investors and analysts about the risks posed by uncertainty surrounding tariffs, trade, and the policy environment.
A diagram quotes Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja: "We are in an environment where tariff policy is difficult to predict." The words "difficult to predict," "tariffs," and "environment" are shown tilting downward, indicating their frequency was lower in Q3 than in Q2.
But as trade tensions eased in the second half of the year, markets recovered swiftly. By autumn, the actual tariff rate had fallen below 20%—although still at a multi-decade high for U.S. companies, it was a far cry from the 100% or higher rates threatened by the U.S. and China back in April.
As the tariff shock subsided, the focus of executive conversations shifted from the external environment to internal company performance: mentions of trade-related terms fell by 31%, and mentions of economic environment terms dropped by 20%. Instead, they began focusing on their own achievements, making "growth" and "resilience" central themes, attributing strong performance to corporate decision-making and execution.
"Moving into the third quarter, the impact of tariffs that could have stalled trade diminished," said Claudia Sam, an economist at New Century Advisors. "Companies talked more about how they successfully managed tariff costs and passed them on to suppliers."
For example, this past spring, United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) CEO Carol Tomé warned that "tariffs are not good for trade" and mentioned "a lot of uncertainty around trade policy." But by autumn, her tone had shifted noticeably: "We are witnessing the most significant transformation of trade policy in a century, and this is UPS's home turf," Tomé told a meeting of investors and analysts.
A diagram quotes UPS CEO Carol Tomé: "Today, uncertainty around tariffs has been somewhat resolved..." The words "uncertainty" and "tariffs" are shown tilting downward, indicating their frequency was lower in Q3 than in Q2.
From the second to the third quarter, executives shifted their focus from challenging business conditions to their own performance achievements. This shift may also reflect the strength of economic growth—U.S. Gross Domestic Product (the total output of all goods and services) grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in the third quarter.
A dynamic scatter plot illustrates the frequency of word usage in earnings calls and their changes. A third step shows that words related to resilience increased in frequency in Q2, such as "growth," "resilience," and "sustainable."
Word Characteristic | Specific Words ---|--- Frequently Used Words | growth, expectations, resilient, customer, investment, margins Words Used More in Summer | environment, sustainable, uncertainty, tariffs, trade, volatility Words Used More in Autumn | artificial intelligence, data, price, opportunity, discipline, strengthen, government shutdown
A fifth step in the dynamic scatter plot shows that the frequency of the words "artificial intelligence" and "government shutdown" increased in Q3 compared to Q2.
The Washington Post's analysis found that earlier warnings about the economy were replaced by words like "accelerate," "strengthen," and "strong"—the usage of these three words increased between 16% and 32% in the third quarter.
Wells Fargo's messaging shifted from "maintaining caution in a period of economic uncertainty" to stating, "We are fortunate to be a U.S.-focused bank, benefiting from the strong resilience of our domestic economy and markets." Manufacturing giant 3M changed its tune from "navigating a macro environment filled with uncertainty" to "against a backdrop of a largely unchanged and generally soft overall environment, we again delivered a strong quarter."
Benjamin Finzi, Managing Director and Leader of the Deloitte Global CEO Program, said this shift in language reflects that business leaders tend to be more optimistic when talking about their own companies than when describing the overall economy.
"The more specific the question, the more optimistic they become," Finzi added, noting that the overall tone in the second half of 2025 was one of "expecting growth."
The word "discipline" also became a common term for executives, used to promote their efforts in cost control.
A diagram quotes General Motors CEO Mary Barra: "We acted with urgency and discipline to strengthen GM's position." The words "discipline" and "strengthen" are shown tilting upward, indicating their frequency was higher in Q3 than in Q2.
The Washington Post's analysis shows that mentions of AI-related terms rose 31% from Q2 to Q3, with "artificial intelligence" becoming the most distinctive keyword of the autumn earnings season.
"Companies today feel they have to signal they are doing something in AI, much like in 1999 or 2000 when every company had to say they were doing something on the internet," said Scott Wren, Senior Global Market Strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
For leading tech companies, this shift manifested as increased investment in infrastructure like data centers. In some cases, however, "AI" served as a euphemism for layoffs or a rationale for slowing hiring. Executives at C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. stated that since 2022, productivity has increased 40% through technology and automation, successfully achieving "a decoupling of volume growth from headcount growth." Air Products Chief Financial Officer Melissa Schaefer, while mentioning "several AI-related projects," credited cost savings to "actions related to streamlining personnel and improving productivity."
On one significant economic issue, executives remained largely silent: immigration. During the presentation portions of the earnings calls across both quarters, executives never mentioned the word "immigration." In the summer, four companies briefly mentioned "immigration policy" while discussing trade and tax concerns, but by autumn, such mentions had disappeared entirely. Across both quarters' calls, only three companies mentioned the word "visa" in an immigration-related context.
Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a professor at the Yale School of Management known for his frequent dialogues with corporate leaders, suggested that companies might be deliberately avoiding the topic to avoid angering policymakers.
"Companies are concerned about making statements that could provoke the [Trump] administration, and this is influencing their language on earnings calls," Sonnenfeld said. "They are not celebrating a good economy; they are in a state of panic and are being very cautious with investment decisions."
Experts also caution that the optimism displayed in earnings calls represents the view of the top tier of the U.S. economy—these are mostly large public companies with significant market share. Meanwhile, a closely watched index from the University of Michigan showed that U.S. consumer confidence declined throughout 2025.
In the final months of 2025, the U.S. job market stalled: while layoffs were relatively low, few new jobs were created. Hiring was particularly weak among small and medium-sized businesses, and a wave of bankruptcies hit vulnerable sectors like retail and industrials. In December, U.S. inflation remained elevated at 2.7%.
"The U.S. economy is severely bifurcated right now, and this split exists even within the business world itself," Sonnenfeld commented.
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