Guosen Securities: Domestic and International Wind Power Sector Poised for Synergistic Growth, Demand and Structural Shifts Create New Opportunities

Stock News12-19 12:21

Guosen Securities released a research report stating that onshore wind power has achieved rapid cost reductions through scaling and technological iterations, with installations exceeding expectations. However, intense competition in the turbine manufacturing segment has compressed profit margins. By 2025, price recovery is expected to improve profitability, alongside explosive growth in overseas orders. Offshore wind power, which saw sluggish installations due to approval delays, is set for a rebound in 2025 as major projects commence in regions like Jiangsu and Guangdong. Key insights from Guosen Securities include:

**"14th Five-Year Plan" Wind Power Review**: Onshore wind power entered the grid-parity era post-2021, driving installations beyond expectations through cost reductions. Yet, profit margins were squeezed due to fierce competition. From H2 2024, onshore wind prices began recovering, with profitability improving in 2025 alongside higher shipments. Chinese turbine makers are gaining overseas orders rapidly in emerging markets, leveraging cost, service, and localization advantages. Offshore wind installations lagged in 2022-2024 due to approval bottlenecks but are rebounding in 2025 with regional mega-projects.

**2026 Onshore Wind Outlook**: Domestic installations are projected to hit 120GW (+10% YoY), setting new records. Supply chain prices remain supportive, with turbine profits recovering significantly and component suppliers benefiting from operational leverage. Emerging markets are expected to grow at a 17% CAGR (2024-2030), boosting export-driven profits for Chinese manufacturers. Localization of gearboxes and main bearings is advancing, with companies like Delixi, Weili Transmission, and Xinqianglian enhancing supply capabilities. The shift from forged to cast main shafts continues, while sliding bearings in gearboxes gain traction for cost efficiency.

**2026 Offshore Wind Outlook**: Domestic installations may reach 11-15GW (+40% YoY), with national offshore projects launching in 2026. Total offshore installations during the "15th Five-Year Plan" could hit 70-100GW. Domestic turbine tenders may reach 15-20GW, another record high. Overseas offshore wind demand will grow steadily, with Europe facing tight cable and monopile supplies. Deep-water projects will drive demand for 500kV AC/DC cables and commercialize jacket/floating foundations, benefiting specialized manufacturers.

**Investment Recommendations**: The global wind sector is entering a high-growth phase in 2026. Key picks include turbine makers Goldwind, Yunda, and Sany Renewable, component suppliers Delixi and Jinlei, and offshore players Dajin Heavy Industry, Haili Wind Power, and Orient Cable.

**Risks**: Installation demand may underperform; policy shifts; raw material price spikes; intensified competition.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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