Recent social media outbursts by the former U.S. president appear to be undermining his own negotiation efforts. On Friday, April 24, oil prices climbed for the sixth consecutive trading day. West Texas Intermediate crude rose to around $97 per barrel, while Brent crude reached approximately $106 per barrel in early trading, marking a weekly gain of about 16%. The primary driver behind this rally is a single factor: renewed uncertainty over U.S.-Iran talks, leading markets to price in a prolonged standoff.
According to the latest media reports, a series of posts by the former president on Truth Social, coupled with his continued push for a maritime blockade of Iranian ports, are damaging negotiation efforts being conducted through intermediaries like Pakistan, as stated by two U.S. officials familiar with the matter. Iranian negotiators also view these posts as attempts to humiliate Tehran's leadership, making them less willing to reach an agreement.
Dennis Kissler, Senior Vice President at BOK Financial Securities, commented, "Tensions are tightening further—the market is now pricing in a more intense and protracted confrontation."
The former president's posts have become a stumbling block in the negotiations. In his posts, he claimed that Iran does not want to close the Strait of Hormuz but prefers to keep it open to earn $500 million daily. He also described Iran's new president as "far less radical and much smarter than his predecessor." Iran's parliamentary speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, characterized these posts as "media warfare and public opinion manipulation." Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, stated on Wednesday that Iran welcomes talks with the U.S. but identified "blockades and threats as major obstacles to genuine negotiations."
In response, an unnamed White House spokesperson said, "The former president has no intention of protecting the dignity of Iran's leaders; he takes the negotiations seriously, with the goal of ensuring long-term U.S. national security." Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute focusing on Iran, stated bluntly, "The former president's posting style is undermining his own stated goal of making diplomacy work. For dealing with the Iranian regime, the effective approach is quiet and low-key, not high-profile attacks on Iranian leaders in the media or on social media."
A split has emerged within the former president's advisory team regarding strategy. One faction advocates maintaining the blockade to buy time, arguing that Iran's inability to export oil normally could fill its storage facilities within weeks, forcing Tehran to make greater concessions. For this group, the social media posts are part of a strategy to "run down the clock." The former president confirmed this view to reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday, stating he is in no hurry for a deal: "You know who's under time pressure? They are. Because if their oil can't move, their entire oil infrastructure will 'explode'—they have nowhere to store it."
The opposing faction believes now is the time to seek a resolution. These advisors worry that a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz will inflict deeper economic damage domestically through high oil prices and trigger political backlash in the upcoming midterm elections. For them, the tough rhetoric may be eroding progress previously made by negotiators.
Talks remain deadlocked on several core issues, including Iran's nuclear capabilities and Israel's military actions in Lebanon. A ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran took effect just over two weeks ago, but the first round of talks in Pakistan in mid-April ended without results. This week, Iran refused to send a delegation to Islamabad for the second round. The former U.S. vice president was prepared to lead a team but the trip was canceled. While the ceasefire was extended on Monday, the negotiation process itself remains stalled.
Iran's demands include the lifting of sanctions, guarantees for talks on limiting its nuclear and missile programs, security assurances against military strikes, and some form of formal control over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. and Israel have explicitly rejected the latter two demands. According to a Bloomberg report last week, some Gulf Arab states and European leaders believe a broader agreement would take at least six months. Currently, parties are exploring the possibility of an interim deal to reopen the strait and end the blockade, leaving other disputes for later negotiations.
Movement through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly at a standstill, with only occasional movement of Iran-related vessels. On Thursday, U.S. forces boarded a supertanker carrying Iranian oil in the Indian Ocean, signaling an intensification of the maritime blockade. Meanwhile, on Wednesday, Iranian forces fired on and seized two vessels.
Comments