Data collected over the past 24 hours for the liquor price monitor indicates a broad and significant recovery in the average terminal retail prices for major Chinese baijiu products on June 6. If one bottle of each major product were bundled for sale today, the total price would be 9,888 yuan, a modest increase of 12 yuan from the previous day, halting the prior consecutive decline. The market showed signs of recovery following a significant weakening the day before, with a slight improvement in terminal trading sentiment, although the divergence in price movements among core products remained pronounced.
Among the 11 major products tracked today, seven advanced while four declined, with gainers holding a clear advantage. On the upside, Qinghua Lang led the gains, rising 8 yuan per bottle to reclaim a level above 690 yuan. Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd.'s Pu Wu Ba Dai rose 7 yuan per bottle, staging a strong rebound after four consecutive days of decline. Qinghua Fen 20 and Shuijing Jiannanchun both increased by 3 yuan per bottle, with the latter fully recovering yesterday's losses to return to the second-highest level for the month. Jingpin Moutai rose by 2 yuan per bottle, while Feitian Moutai and Yanghe Mengzhilan M6+ both saw minor increases of 1 yuan per bottle. On the downside, Xijiu Junpin led the declines, falling 7 yuan per bottle for a second straight day of significant retreat, bringing its price down to the second-lowest level for the month. Guojiao 1573 dropped 3 yuan per bottle, declining for a third consecutive day to set a new monthly low. Gujinggong Gu 20 fell by 2 yuan per bottle, and Wuliangye 1618 experienced a slight decrease of 1 yuan per bottle.
The daily data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points reasonably distributed across major regions nationwide, including but not limited to liquor company-authorized distributors, independent distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. The raw data consists of actual transacted terminal retail prices handled by these points over the past 24 hours, aiming to provide objective, scientific, and fully traceable data on the market prices of well-known baijiu products. Since the official i-Moutai platform began selling Feitian Moutai at 1,499 yuan per bottle (adjusted to 1,539 yuan on March 31) and Jingpin Moutai at 2,299 yuan per bottle (adjusted to 2,359 yuan on May 16) at the start of the year, the gravitational pull of this new channel on the average terminal retail prices of these two products has gradually become apparent. The daily published prices follow a calculation rule weighted by actual transaction volume, and verifiable prices from this channel have been incorporated into the terminal retail price calculations for these two products.
Key Industry Developments
In significant industry news, a recent research report from a leading securities firm noted that the baijiu sector is currently in a phase of gradual recovery, with leading companies beginning to show signs of bottoming out, suggesting long-term allocation opportunities for the sector. The report stated that the sector's current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is approximately 20 times, situated within a medium-to-long-term bottom range. Its percentile rankings over 3-year, 5-year, 10-year, and since-listing periods are 57%, 34%, 18%, and 22% respectively, indicating that a significant amount of medium-to-long-term pessimism is already priced in. Concurrently, shareholder returns from leading baijiu enterprises have steadily improved since 2024. According to financial data, leading companies generally maintain dividend payout ratios above 65%, continuously enhancing the margin of safety for investment. As of May 29, 2024, the dividend yields for Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd., Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.,Ltd., and Luzhou Laojiao Co.,Ltd. were 3.92%, 6.07%, 5.11%, and 6.34% respectively. Supported by these high dividend yields, the baijiu sector is gradually presenting long-term allocation value.
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