Analysts Predict 2026 as Breakout Year for AI Application Investments, Computing Hardware Enters "Capacity-Performance" Synergy Cycle

On Friday (December 19), AI-related stocks on the ChiNext board showed strong activity, with multiple AI application component stocks rising, including Rongke Technology, Thundersoft, and Hangyu Micro, each gaining over 2%. Performance in computing hardware like optical modules and CPO was mixed—Sunny Optical rose over 2%, InnoLight edged higher, while Lightwave Technology led declines with a 5% drop, followed by TFC Optical, Ruijie Networks, and Tiancheng Optoelectronics, each down over 2%.

Among popular ETFs, the largest and most liquid ChiNext AI ETF (159363) fluctuated intraday, peaking at a 1.79% gain before closing up 0.32%, marking its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The fund attracted significant inflows, totaling over 370 million yuan in the past five days, with average daily turnover exceeding 600 million yuan—ranking first among all AI-themed ETFs in both capital inflows and trading volume.

Recent catalysts for AI applications include: - On December 18, ByteDance’s Volcano Engine unveiled its Doubao Large Model 8 at the FORCE Momentum Conference. Daily token usage has surged to 50 trillion, a tenfold year-over-year increase. - Ant Group’s AI health app, "Ant Afu," launched on December 15, saw downloads skyrocket, now boasting 15 million monthly active users and processing over 5 million health queries daily.

Industry analysts note that products with clear use cases and commercialization models are becoming the norm. Founder Securities highlights that improving model capabilities, declining computing costs, and advancing Agent technology will converge to make 2026 the breakout year for AI application investments.

For computing hardware like optical modules, market analysis indicates AI-driven demand is exceeding expectations, with 1.6T module demand projected to double to 20 million units by 2026. Leading firms such as InnoLight, Sunny Optical, and TFC Optical are ramping up Thai production capacity, set for full release in 2026, entering a "capacity-performance" synergy phase where volume and pricing may rise simultaneously.

Demand continues to outpace forecasts, with overseas clients repeatedly revising 2026 procurement plans for 6T modules upward—from an initial 10 million to 20 million units—driven by surging bandwidth needs for AI training and inference networks.

On the supply side, top manufacturers are accelerating dual-track capacity expansion in China and Thailand. Sunny Optical’s Thai Phase I and II facilities are operational, InnoLight’s Thai plant is at full scale, and TFC Optical’s Phase II will launch in 2025, with industry-wide capacity peaking in Q1 2026.

Looking ahead to 2026, computing power remains a top growth sector in tech. A-share optical module makers, positioned as "picks-and-shovels" plays, are poised for sustained gains. The ChiNext AI Index, heavily weighted in computing hardware, has doubled year-to-date, outperforming peers like CSI AI and STAR AI, making it a key focus for investors.

To capitalize on computing opportunities, the ChiNext AI ETF (159363) and its off-exchange counterparts (Class A 023407, Class C 023408) offer targeted exposure, with over 56% allocation to optical module leaders like InnoLight, Sunny Optical, and TFC Optical. The fund’s 70% computing power and 20% AI application allocation efficiently capture AI sector trends (data as of November 30, 2025).

Among peers, the ChiNext AI ETF (159363) leads with 3.7 billion yuan in assets and 600 million yuan in average daily turnover over the past month, topping the seven ETFs tracking the ChiNext AI Index (data as of December 18).

Risk Disclosure: The ChiNext AI ETF passively tracks the ChiNext AI Index (base date: December 28, 2018; launch date: July 11, 2024). Historical index performance (2020–2024): +20.1%, +17.57%, -34.52%, +47.83%, +38.44%. Index components may adjust per rules; past performance does not guarantee future results. Stock mentions are illustrative and not investment advice or indicative of fund holdings. The fund is rated R4 (high risk) for aggressive (C4+) investors. Investment decisions carry risks; past fund performance does not predict future returns.