Abstract
Qualys will report fiscal Q4 results on February 05, 2026 Post Market; consensus points to revenue growth alongside solid margins and EPS expansion, while investors watch execution in core subscription security and expansion into new modules.
Market Forecast
Market models for the current quarter indicate revenue of $0.17 billion (up 10.87% year over year), EBIT of $0.08 billion (up 29.71% year over year), and EPS of $1.78 (up 32.02% year over year). Forecasts imply robust operating leverage; if achieved, gross margin and net margin should remain elevated, supporting continued adjusted EPS expansion.
The main business is expected to sustain mid-to-high single-digit to low-teens growth as enterprises prioritize consolidated cybersecurity platforms and vulnerability risk management. The most promising segment is subscription-driven direct revenue at $0.09 billion last quarter, supported by continued module adoption and cross-sell momentum on the unified platform.
Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, Qualys delivered revenue of $0.17 billion, a gross profit margin of 83.64%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $0.05 billion, a net profit margin of 29.64%, and adjusted EPS of $1.86, with year-over-year growth visible across revenue and profitability. A key highlight was better-than-expected profitability, with EBIT of $0.08 billion surpassing the prior estimate and adjusted EPS of $1.86 above consensus, demonstrating disciplined expense control and strong operating efficiency. Main business performance showed direct revenue of $0.09 billion and partner revenue of $0.08 billion, reflecting a balanced go-to-market mix and ongoing expansion with channel partners.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Core platform and recurring subscription revenue
Management’s subscription-driven model provides visibility through annual and multi-year customer commitments, supporting the revenue forecast of $0.17 billion and year-over-year growth of 10.87%. Pricing discipline and upsell into existing customers are central to sustaining gross margin at 83.64% levels, as software delivery at scale continues to favor high incremental margins. The company’s consistent net profit margin of 29.64% in the prior quarter indicates an ability to translate top-line expansion into bottom-line growth, and the forecast EPS of $1.78 suggests continued operating leverage even with investments in go-to-market capacity. A key stock driver is whether billings and deferred revenue performance corroborate revenue growth, signaling healthy demand rather than short-term linearity.
Newer modules and platform expansion
The forecasted acceleration in EBIT growth to 29.71% year over year and EPS growth to 32.02% is consistent with ongoing adoption of incremental modules that sit on the core Qualys Cloud Platform. Expansion areas such as broader endpoint and cloud posture capabilities typically monetize at premium price points and increase average revenue per customer, reinforcing the higher gross margin profile. Investors will look for qualitative updates on customer wins in broader-risk and cloud-related use cases, which are strategically important to elongate the growth runway. Sustaining quarterly net retention above industry averages would affirm that newer modules are resonating and that cross-sell is offsetting any macro-related deal scrutiny.
Partner ecosystem and distribution balance
The last quarter’s revenue mix of $0.09 billion direct and $0.08 billion via partners illustrates a balanced funnel that can extend reach into the midmarket and larger enterprises through global channels. The partner contribution is a swing factor for quarterly performance, as larger partner-led deals can introduce variability in timing, but they also drive scale without materially diluting margins due to the company’s high software gross margin baseline. For the upcoming print, stability in the partner pipeline combined with steady direct enterprise activity would help underpin the revenue guide. Commentary on channel sell-through and pipeline coverage for the first half of the calendar year will be watched closely by investors as a leading indicator for sustained double-digit growth.
Operating efficiency and margin trajectory
The EBIT outlook at $0.08 billion, alongside a forecast EPS of $1.78, implies continued cost discipline despite incremental investments in product and sales capacity. The company’s operating model has historically leaned on high gross margins and measured opex growth to expand operating margins through the cycle. For this quarter, investors will test whether the margin trajectory remains intact while the company scales its platform and expands internationally. Any incremental commentary on data center efficiency, cloud cost optimization, or R&D leverage will provide context for EPS durability in fiscal 2026.
Cash generation, billings, and renewal dynamics
While GAAP net profit and EPS show healthy profitability, cash metrics and billings growth will be important corroborators of demand health. Renewal rates and multi-year deals directly affect deferred revenue and billings, which in turn drive visibility for subsequent quarters. If the company reports billings trending ahead of revenue and strong renewal activity, the market is likely to view the revenue and EPS trajectory as sustainable into the next fiscal year. Conversely, if billings growth lags because of elongated deal cycles or budget resets early in the calendar year, shares could react despite meeting headline metrics.
Stock price sensitivity: growth vs. valuation
With consensus pointing to double-digit revenue growth and faster EPS expansion, the key sensitivity rests on the balance between sustained growth and premium valuation. Delivery of the forecast revenue of $0.17 billion with healthy margins is likely already reflected in expectations; upside surprise would require notable beat-and-raise dynamics in both revenue and operating income. The market will scrutinize qualitative cues around demand for newer modules, competitive displacement, and sales capacity expansion to calibrate forward multiples.
Analyst Opinions
The prevailing stance among recent analyst and institutional previews skews bullish, with a majority expecting the company to meet or slightly exceed revenue and EPS forecasts and to maintain robust margins. Commentary highlights the strength of the subscription model, consistent gross margins near the mid-80.00% range, and continued cross-sell momentum as drivers of EPS growth above revenue growth. Several widely followed institutions emphasize that operating leverage should remain favorable, with careful expense management enabling EBIT growth of 29.71% year over year and EPS growth of 32.02% even as the company invests in product innovation. The bullish camp also points to balanced direct and partner channels as a supportive indicator for pipeline health and broader market reach. Conversely, cautious voices remain in the minority and tend to focus on macro budget scrutiny, but the prevailing view anticipates stable demand in vulnerability risk management and adjacent modules, underpinning a constructive setup for the quarter.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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