GTHT has issued a research report assigning an "overweight" rating to Shiyue Daotian (09676), recognizing the company as the leading brand in the premium rice segment with strong comprehensive advantages. The firm is optimistic about the company's ability to continuously gain market share in the future.
GTHT forecasts the company's EPS for 2025-2027 to be RMB 0.57/0.71/0.86 respectively. The firm believes that the company's products align with health-conscious trends and possess strong comprehensive competitiveness, positioning it for sustained rapid growth. Based on a 25x PE ratio for 2025, GTHT sets a target price of HK$15.49 (using an exchange rate of 1 HKD = 0.92 CNY).
**Industry Growth Slow but Upgrade Trends Evident, Bullish on Company's Market Share Expansion**
Against the backdrop of relatively stable domestic population changes, total demand for kitchen staples like rice remains steady. However, as a low-unit-price essential category, structural upgrades continue, with packaging penetration rates gradually increasing. The current market structure remains highly fragmented, with the CR5 of pre-packaged rice at only 14%. Shiyue Daotian holds the leading market share in both premium rice and Northeast rice categories.
GTHT is optimistic about the company's continued market share expansion capability, based on the strong comprehensive advantages already established: prominent flagship product advantages with active category expansion, industry-leading omni-channel fulfillment capabilities, and established brand equity in primary agricultural products. These advantages require years of deep industry cultivation to accumulate and are difficult for competitors to catch up with in the short term.
**Steady Rice Growth, Corn Opens Second Growth Curve**
The company has maintained rapid business performance growth in recent years. In 2024, revenue and adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 5.745 billion and RMB 349 million respectively, corresponding to CAGRs of 25.35% and 12.1% from 2020-2024.
By product category, 2024 revenues for rice/grains & beans & others/bulk goods & others were RMB 4.014/0.47/0.446 billion respectively, with 2020-2024 CAGRs of 21%/6%/50%. Additionally, corn experienced explosive growth to RMB 815 million in 2024, opening the company's second growth curve. In H1 2025, corn revenue declined 15.78% year-over-year, primarily due to short-term marketing adjustments resulting in decreased revenue from certain platforms.
GTHT believes the company's corn segment still has significant future potential. In terms of categories, it can extend toward deep-processed products such as flavored corn, corn paste packets, and corn kernels. In terms of channels, it can leverage the company's omni-channel advantages.
**Early Online Dividend Capture, Current Online and Offline Parallel Development**
In 2024, the company's online/offline revenues were RMB 3.599/2.147 billion respectively, with 2020-2024 CAGRs of 18.11%/45.61%, showing continuously increasing offline proportion.
The company demonstrates strong channel adjustment capabilities, successfully capturing early online dividends and significantly strengthening offline presence in recent years. This has formed today's robust online + offline omni-channel fulfillment capability, with numerous blank markets and channels yet to be developed. Both online and offline channels are expected to maintain rapid growth in the future.
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