Key developments are unfolding across global markets and geopolitics this morning. US President Donald Trump stated that a potential agreement with Iran could be reached after the November midterm elections, while Yemen's conflict continues to escalate with significant casualties reported. On Wall Street, the Nasdaq Composite closed at a fresh record high, and both gold and silver prices moved higher.
Trump Signals Potential Post-Midterm Deal With Iran
According to reports from Chinese state media, during the opening day of the 81st United Nations General Assembly debate in New York, President Trump stated that the US could quickly "destroy" Iran, but did not rule out the possibility of both sides reaching a conflict-ending agreement after the US congressional midterm elections in November. Trump emphasized that America will never allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. He noted that Iran is waiting to see how he performs in the midterm elections, and there is no reason for Tehran not to reach an agreement with Washington after the vote.
Iranian and US Envoys Meet in New York
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff held a meeting in New York on Tuesday during the UN General Assembly session. According to Iranian sources, the meeting occurred "at the request of the United States," and Tehran agreed to Witkoff's request to convey its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. These conditions reportedly include the immediate lifting of the naval blockade, the immediate unfreezing of all Iranian assets, and an end to wars across various regional fronts. Trump described the meeting between US officials and Iranian representatives as "very good," lasting three hours and being "very constructive." He added that both sides have scheduled another round of talks in the near future.
Yemen Conflict Escalates With Heavy Casualties
Yemeni government officials reported that fierce clashes erupted again on Tuesday between government forces and Houthi rebels in the southwestern province of Taiz, resulting in at least 16 deaths and dozens of injuries. A statement from the Houthi group said its recent military operations in Yemen's western coastal areas, particularly southwestern Taiz province and western Hodeidah province, have caused more than 600 government troop casualties and the capture of hundreds more. The Houthis also reported that Saudi F-15 and Typhoon fighter jets conducted 19 airstrikes on Houthi-controlled areas within the past 24 hours, causing casualties including women and children. The group claimed that since the escalation began, Saudi Arabia has carried out a total of 936 airstrikes and missile attacks on Yemen. Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi warned Turkey and Pakistan on Monday not to intervene in the group's escalating conflict with Saudi Arabia, urging both nations not to get dragged into the fighting for political or economic interests with Riyadh.
Nasdaq Hits Record High, Gold and Silver Rise Together
US stocks closed mixed on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.45% to reach yet another all-time high. The S&P 500 finished flat, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.36%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged more than 2%, closing at its highest level since mid-July. Memory chip stocks rallied broadly, with Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) jumping over 5%, while other sector names also posted strong gains. European markets were mixed, with the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.15%, France's CAC 40 up 0.25%, Germany's DAX 30 up 0.10%, and Italy's FTSE MIB down 0.41%. Meanwhile, Brent crude and WTI crude futures both fell more than 1% on Tuesday, marking the fifth consecutive day of declines for international oil prices. COMEX gold futures gained 0.28% to settle at $4,396.20 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures advanced 1.8% to $67.61 per ounce.
Analysts Point to Real Interest Rates as Key Short-Term Driver for Precious Metals
Market analysts suggest that the key factor suppressing gold and silver prices in the short term is not the Federal Reserve's September rate hike, but rather expectations of higher US interest rates and a stronger dollar index. Wang Jun, vice president and chief expert at Green Dahua Futures, explained that following the release of US August CPI data, the market had already fully priced in the September rate hike, allowing gold prices to adjust sufficiently beforehand. The actual impact of the Fed's 25-basis-point hike on gold was limited. Another analyst, Sun Fukun, vice president of Huayuan Futures, noted that while precious metals prices initially dipped after the September rate decision, they recovered within 24 hours, indicating that the real disruptor was the dot plot signaling a "higher for longer" rate path. At the same time, central bank gold purchases and gold ETF inflows continue — global gold ETFs saw net inflows of $18 billion in August, the second-largest monthly inflow in history, with China's central bank adding to its reserves for 22 consecutive months. Furthermore, market attention is shifting from short-term monetary policy to broader macro themes such as de-dollarization and currency depreciation. This suggests that the pricing anchor for precious metals has moved from a single factor to multiple factors, with real interest rates still guiding short-term direction but with diminished influence. The fact that gold rebounded after the September rate hike reflects a combination of exhausted selling pressure and structural buying, not the end of real rate pressure. If the 10-year Treasury yield firmly holds above 5%, the downward pressure on gold will quickly return. Sun Fukun also pointed out that while the rate hike cycle remains unfinished, silver's stronger industrial characteristics mean demand expectations could weaken amid slow global economic recovery, fundamentally distinguishing it from gold's stronger safe-haven appeal. Additionally, real interest rates have a greater impact on silver, and if the 10-year yield exceeds 5%, silver prices will struggle to sustain a rebound. Looking at the long term, Wang Jun emphasized that key indicators to monitor for the gold and silver markets include: US inflation and employment data such as core CPI and core PCE; Fed policy signals including FOMC meetings, official speeches, and CME rate futures implying the timing and pace of potential rate cuts; the dollar index and Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year TIPS real yield; and physical investment signals such as global gold and silver ETF flows.
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