Market Rising aviation fuel costs are severely impacting airlines across multiple countries. Beverage production costs in India are under pressure from rising oil prices. A facility belonging to the Middle East's largest aluminum producer was attacked and sustained significant damage; full production recovery could take up to a year.
Macro US service sector activity contracted for the first time since 2023. A US military aircraft crashed inside Iran; US forces are conducting rescue operations. The UAE's largest natural gas processing facility has suspended operations following an attack. The proposed Trump administration budget for fiscal year 2027 allocates $2.2 trillion to government agencies. A US fighter jet was shot down over Iran; former President Trump had previously threatened to continue bombing for several more weeks. US non-farm payrolls showed a strong rebound in March. A US official confirmed a US fighter jet was shot down in Iran and that search and rescue efforts are underway. The CFTC is asserting its jurisdiction over prediction markets. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the US has climbed again. Surging US mortgage rates have led to a sharp decline in refinancing demand. Gasoline costs are rising, but electric vehicle drivers report being largely unaffected. Michigan has relaxed its summer gasoline regulations. US service sector activity contracted for the first time in three years, with a decline in new business being a contributing factor. The proposed Trump 2027 budget aims to significantly increase military spending while cutting funding for domestic agencies. Citing impacts from the Iran conflict, the Bank of Italy has lowered its economic growth forecasts for this year and next. Ships from France and Japan have transited the Strait of Hormuz, potentially the first such movements since the outbreak of the Iran war. A US judge upheld a decision to quash subpoenas related to Powell; prosecutors have vowed to appeal. NATO Secretary-General Rutte is scheduled to meet with former President Trump at the White House amid external criticism of NATO.
Corporate Applications for H-1B visas by major US tech firms have seen a notable decline by the end of 2025. Blue Owl Capital is restricting redemptions, limiting investor withdrawals to 5% per fund. SpaceX has filed for a significant IPO, potentially boosting Elon Musk's net worth toward $1 trillion. Microsoft is investing $10 billion to expand its AI infrastructure in Japan. OpenAI has acquired the tech talk show TBPN. Meta will cut nearly 200 jobs in the Bay Area of Mexico in May. Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 drug has received FDA approval and does not require dietary restrictions. Amazon will impose a 3.5% fuel surcharge on sellers in the US and Canada. The US National Labor Relations Board has ordered Amazon to engage in negotiations.
Commentary A President of the San Francisco Fed stated that zero job growth does not necessarily indicate a weak labor market. With oil prices surpassing $100 per barrel, Wells Fargo Securities has lowered its outlook for the S&P 500 index. Moody's has warned that soaring oil prices will remain elevated and increase inflationary pressures.
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