POP MART (9992.HK) experienced a sharp intraday rise, increasing by more than 8% during trading on April 14. By 13:46, the stock was up over 6.5%, bringing its total market capitalization to approximately HK$216.4 billion.
The positive movement follows a report from Goldman Sachs (GS) highlighting strong market demand for the company's newly launched intellectual property and products, with robust sales across major online platforms. In March, the company released two highly anticipated collaborative series with Sanrio and FIFA. Analysts including Michelle Cheng from Goldman Sachs noted in their report that as of April 10th, all plush toy series were sold out on official online channels, indicating vigorous demand and high popularity for the IP.
Furthermore, renowned investor Duan Yongping has recently frequently mentioned POP MART, stating in a post, "I am now a fan of Wang Ning (founder of POP MART)," and publicly announcing, "My POP MART insurance company is now officially open," which has drawn significant market attention. Some market analysts interpret this as an indication that Duan has begun positioning himself in POP MART, potentially by selling put options.
It is noteworthy that as early as 2025, Duan had expressed a cautious stance towards the company, stating, "POP MART's products are indeed very interesting, and the founder is also a very interesting person. It's remarkable what they have achieved today, but I cannot foresee what the company will look like in 10 years."
A significant catalyst for Duan's change in attitude appears to be POP MART's 2025 financial results. Released on March 25, the report showed annual revenue of 37.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 184.7%, and an adjusted net profit of 13.08 billion yuan, surging 284.5% year-on-year, marking the first time revenue surpassed the 300 billion yuan mark. However, following the earnings release, the stock price plummeted, falling over 22% to HK$168.3 on the same day, and continued to decline afterwards, hitting a low of HK$140.10, a drop of more than 40% from its peak for the year. This decline was likely due to conservative guidance from management for 2026, suggesting "revenue growth of no less than 20%."
"I only started seriously researching POP MART after seeing these financial results," Duan Yongping admitted on his personal account. "Previously, I had only seen fragments of Wang Ning's comments and some short videos. I always had a good impression of Wang Ning, but I felt this business was too far from my understanding, and its sustainability was unclear."
As his understanding deepened, Duan's appreciation for POP MART grew. On April 4th, he posted, "Why do I feel that POP MART is the pioneer of Chinese product internationalization? Other companies don't seem to have reached this level yet. Right business, right people, right price."
Since the stock price stabilized at the end of March, several brokerages have issued positive evaluations of POP MART. Regarding internationalization, Pacific Securities noted that POP MART's globalization process has accelerated significantly. Revenue from Mainland China, Asia-Pacific, the Americas, and Europe & other regions reached 20.852 billion yuan, 8.011 billion yuan, 6.806 billion yuan, and 1.451 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 134.6%, 157.6%, 748.4%, and 506.3%, with explosive growth in the American market. By the end of 2025, the total number of global stores reached 630, a net increase of 109 from the beginning of the year, with 445 in Mainland China, 85 in Asia-Pacific, 64 in the Americas, and 36 in Europe & other regions, showing rapid expansion overseas.
Guosheng Securities expressed optimism about the long-term growth potential and economic moat of IP platform-based operating companies. In the short term, they are positive on the market performance of the Labubu x FIFA World Cup collaboration series. For the medium term, they看好 the company's expansion in overseas markets and multiple product categories, including accessories, desserts, home appliances, and theme parks. Long-term prospects are看好 for the growth space offered by the company's IP platformization and global operations. Based on the company's 2025 performance, they slightly adjusted profit forecasts, anticipating revenues of 445.51 billion yuan (previous forecast 549.00 billion) / 523.62 billion yuan (previous forecast 645.00 billion) / 602.16 billion yuan for 2026-2028, and net profits attributable to shareholders of 155.77 billion yuan (previous forecast 180.70 billion) / 188.40 billion yuan (previous forecast 214.19 billion) / 219.67 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 10.7x/8.9x/7.6x, maintaining a "Buy" rating.
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