The past trading week saw the A-share market maintain a pattern of shrinking volume and consolidation for the first four sessions, only to break downward on Friday, catching many investors off guard. As a result, more than 4,000 stocks recorded weekly losses, with major indices broadly declining, though the ChiNext Index managed a slight gain. From a chart perspective, the major indices can be categorized into three distinct situations: those that have broken downward after forming a triangle consolidation pattern, including the Wind All-A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 500, and CSI 1000; those that have retested or hit new lows, such as the ChiNext Index, STAR 50, and CSI 300; and those whose previously healthy trends have shown signs of exhaustion in the latter half of the week, with Friday confirming a trend breakdown—such as the dividend index, micro-cap index, and CSI 2000. These three patterns reflect the overall market since mid-to-late August, characterized by defensive support at the lower end, frothiness in small-cap stocks, and weakness in technology shares. Generally speaking, the indiscriminate decline on Friday poses greater damage to the first chart pattern, as there was potential for upward movement that instead turned downward. For the second and third patterns, markets tend to be more forgiving, as a pullback to previous lows implies the market is already at recognized bottom levels, which tends to trigger bargain-hunting instincts and expectations around support levels. Meanwhile, the healthiest trends often retain active capital clustering and expectations for short-term recovery. Whether the market actually recovers one direction first, or both, or neither, carries a degree of randomness. Which direction of recovery do you favor? And more importantly, how should one interpret such a reversal, and how should you respond accordingly?
Fangzheng Securities believes that during the latter half of the week, the downward adjustment in the market gradually intensified, though structurally, tech and growth sectors represented by the ChiNext and STAR boards began to show counterattack strength, particularly in overseas computing power chains. The firm holds that the recovery in tech sectors has a degree of sustainability, underpinned by the imminent landing of the Federal Reserve's rate hike decision, the opportunity for improved risk appetite from the leadership meeting, and the easing of concerns over industrial catalysts and sanctions. A-share technology stocks, having clearly lagged behind their US and South Korean counterparts, are expected to lead a market turnaround, shifting from initial declines to gains and igniting a new round of recovery. With major indices having fallen to near annual lows, investors should aggressively position themselves and focus on three key allocation opportunities. First, the return of technology, as the AI industry's trend and prosperity levels remain solid; after the retreat in crowded trades, allocation value has significantly improved. Within tech, attention should tilt toward subsectors with pricing power, volume expansion, and new technological breakthroughs—prioritizing overseas computing power over domestic computing power, while also watching relatively low-positioned AI applications and Hang Seng Tech. Second, focus on the opportunities for HALO assets amid rising inflation and a weaker dollar, with any disturbances around the Fed's September meeting offering better entry points, centered on core resource-related non-ferrous metals and chemicals. Third, look to non-bank financials, which respond most directly to monetary policy changes, offer favorable earnings-valuation alignment, and can stabilize the index.
Shenwan Hongyuan's strategy team, meanwhile, points to an unfavorable global asset allocation environment, characterized by high short-term inflation expectations and no clear resolution path for high US Treasury yields. A Fed rate hike is not the solution but rather a symptom of the medium-term problem. In such an environment, capital markets remain highly sensitive to disturbances related to Treasuries, inflation, and rate hikes, and the global asset allocation backdrop remains under medium-term pressure. Currently, the corrective consolidation phase for tech stocks continues, while the extension of non-tech market themes is also constrained by both domestic and overseas asset allocation conditions. At this stage, it is important to calmly face the reality that no clear breakthrough direction has emerged and to maintain patience. During this period, more thought should be given to potential improvement catalysts. In the short term, the risk of the September Fed policy meeting is in the process of being released, and the period following the September meeting could present a small-scale rebound window. In the medium term, by the third-quarter earnings season of 2027, the valuation digestion process for communications and electronics sectors will have preliminarily run its course, potentially leading to differentiated strength in the AI computing power chain and a revival of tech themes. In the long term, a new consensus on the AI industry trend may form by 2026, with room for positive capital feedback loops and the reconstruction of large-scale upward market moves. The firm believes the current environment resembles the first half of 2014—short-term corrections with medium-term consolidation extending. Greater emphasis should be placed on both tech and non-tech themes. The evolution of tech themes represents a process of fostering new main investment lines for the next phase. Despite short-term market headwinds, the market's exploration of AI industry advancements remains insufficient, preserving room for theme rotation in subsequent rebound phases. Non-tech directions, which have been outperforming for extended periods, offer extended timelines for absolute returns in high-dividend assets. In non-tech track sectors, short-term volatility may increase, but medium-term key directions remain unchanged: CXO, innovative drugs, coal, shipping, precious metals, industrial metals, and basic chemicals. Moving on to news worth watching over the weekend: Token demand in China is showing explosive growth, with projected consumption expected to reach 1 trillion units by 2026. "Can't grab the iPhone 18" topped the hot search list as the iPhone 18 Pro series sold out almost instantly. The probability of a Fed rate hike next week has surged to around 90%, following US Labor Department data released on the 11th showing August CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, in line with expectations, while core CPI grew 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding forecasts. Traders now see roughly a 90% probability of a rate hike at next week's Fed meeting. Goldman Sachs has adjusted its Fed policy expectations, shifting from an earlier forecast of no action to predicting a September rate hike. On Friday, US stocks saw all three major indices close higher, with the Dow gaining 0.98% but down 1.57% for the week, the Nasdaq rising 0.96% but down 0.66% on the week, and the S&P 500 up 0.86% but down 0.8% for the week. Optical communications stocks advanced, memory chip stocks gave mixed results, and most large-cap tech names rose. A shipbuilding giant under a central state-owned enterprise has initiated its A-share IPO process, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission disclosing on Saturday that the relevant company has completed its listing guidance filing, aiming for an A-share IPO with joint guidance from CITIC Securities and China Merchants Securities. According to media estimates, the company generated nearly 50 billion yuan in revenue last year. CATL announced it made its first buyback of company A-shares on Friday, purchasing 604,300 shares for approximately 200 million yuan. Iran stated it will discuss commercial shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz in Oman on the 14th. Finally, looking ahead to next week, two major events deserve attention: the release of August economic data and the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. On Monday, September 14th, the National Bureau of Statistics will publish price movement data for important means of production in the circulation sector, with August financial data also expected to be released. Zhejiang Securities' macro team had estimated new loans of approximately 100 billion yuan, aggregate financing of 1.65 trillion yuan, M1 growth of 4.0% year-on-year, and M2 growth of 7.5%. A stock suspension review has been completed, and an AI film and television concept stock that saw seven limit-ups in six days will resume trading. On Tuesday, September 15th, the NBS will release a series of important data, including the monthly report on commercial housing sales prices, national economic performance, industrial production above designated size, fixed asset investment excluding rural households, real estate development and sales, total retail sales of consumer goods, and energy production. On Wednesday, September 16th, the World Solar Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Expo will open in Guangzhou, running from the 16th to the 18th. On Thursday, September 17th, at 2:00 AM Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its September rate decision, followed by a press conference, with the dot plot and economic projections released simultaneously. On Friday, September 18th, after market close, the FTSE China A50 Index adjustment will take effect, adding several constituents including certain technology companies while removing others.
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