Abstract
Macerich will report third-quarter results on November 4, 2026 Post-Mkt; this preview compiles consensus forecasts, last quarter’s results, and institutional commentary to frame what matters for revenue, margins, profitability, and adjusted EPS.Market Forecast
Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of 248.27 million US dollars, implying a year-over-year decrease of 0.48%, while adjusted EPS is projected at -0.01, up 82.50% year over year; forecasts for gross margin and net margin have not been formally quantified. Portfolio commentary indicates stable occupancy and leasing momentum, but higher interest expense and capital costs continue to weigh on bottom-line conversion; within the revenue mix, leasing remains the pivotal driver with demand concentrated in experience-forward concepts. The most promising revenue engine remains core leasing, where last quarter’s leasing revenue was 233.44 million US dollars; at the portfolio level, revenue decreased 0.03% year over year, and this quarter’s revenue is projected to slip 0.48% year over year.Last Quarter Review
In the prior quarter, Macerich delivered revenue of 249.71 million US dollars, a gross profit margin of 54.17%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -27.07 million US dollars, a net profit margin of -10.72%, and adjusted EPS of -0.10, improving 37.50% year over year. A notable financial highlight was solid EBIT of 63.86 million US dollars against a modestly flat revenue base, underscoring that operating performance and rent collections held up despite higher financing costs. Main-business execution remained concentrated in leasing, which generated 233.44 million US dollars, with management services at 5.59 million US dollars and other income at 10.67 million US dollars; at the portfolio level, total revenue declined 0.03% year over year.Current Quarter Outlook
Core leasing drivers and revenue cadence
Core leasing is expected to anchor the quarter’s top line as new and expanded tenants, particularly experience- and dining-led concepts, backfill prior vacancies and sustain rent momentum. Given last quarter’s leasing revenue of 233.44 million US dollars and this quarter’s portfolio-level revenue forecast of 248.27 million US dollars (-0.48% year over year), the cadence suggests stable base rent with incremental contribution from recently executed leases offset by the timing of seasonal and variable items. Occupancy and re-leasing spreads will remain central to revenue quality; stable to positive spreads can support like-for-like revenue even if absolute traffic normalizes. The strength of executed leases moving from signed-not-open to open stores, along with seasonal activity from late-quarter openings, will likely define the degree to which reported revenue aligns with the mild year-over-year decline implied by consensus.Leasing economics this quarter will likely reflect continued interest by restaurateurs and experiential operators in high-traffic, Class A centers, supporting a healthy pipeline for the remainder of the year. While absolute growth is modest, rent roll-up on expiring leases and the mix shift toward destination dining and experience-led anchors should support revenue per square foot and ancillary income. Against higher cost of capital, disciplined tenant selection and focus on categories with proven traffic draw can support rent durability and mitigate churn.
The key watch item is the ramp pace of newly opened tenants: if openings cluster late in the quarter, the effect on revenue may be partial, with a fuller contribution expected in the following period. Fee income tied to development or tenant allowances may also affect intra-quarter variability; investors should focus on the recurring rent base and re-leasing spreads as the leading indicators of forward revenue power.
Experiential and restaurant leasing as the most promising revenue catalyst
Within leasing, restaurant and experiential concepts remain the most promising source of incremental growth, reinforcing traffic and dwell-time advantages in premier centers. Recent leasing updates emphasize destination dining and food-related experiences, which typically command strong productivity and help activate dayparts under-penetrated by traditional retailers. This mix shift can have a multiplier effect: traffic from dining increases cross-shopping in soft goods and services, while event-driven experiences bolster weekend and evening trade, improving tenant sales and, over time, percentage-rent potential.From a financial perspective, the influence of these tenants should appear first in base rent and occupancy stability, then in ancillary and percentage-rent contributions as sales cohorts mature. While last quarter’s segment reporting aggregates dining within leasing (233.44 million US dollars), qualitative signals point to a growing share of new deals in these categories, which strengthens visibility on leasing revenue over the coming quarters. The crux for this quarter is more about establishing future revenue run-rate via executed leases than delivering an outsized headline beat; still, a steady inflow of openings can narrow the expected 0.48% year-over-year revenue decline.
Sustained demand from well-capitalized operators further mitigates turnover risk. Because experiential and dining leases frequently involve fit-out complexity, the timing of openings is an execution swing factor; the earlier those stores open within the quarter, the more second-half revenue capture the company secures. Monitoring disclosure on signed-not-open square footage and scheduled opening timelines will help gauge how much of the growth runway converts into realized revenue before year-end.
Capital structure, cost of capital, and their influence on margins and EPS
The most consequential swing factor for margins and EPS this quarter remains the cost of capital and the sequencing of refinancings. The prior quarter’s GAAP net loss and -10.72% net margin contrasted with a solid gross profit margin of 54.17%, indicating that interest expense and below-the-line items are the main headwinds to net profitability. With adjusted EPS guided by consensus at -0.01 (up 82.50% year over year), even moderate relief on interest expense or reduced non-operating drag could have an outsized effect on reported EPS.Recent capital markets actions, including new senior notes and an at-the-market equity capacity, provide optionality to address upcoming maturities and ladder the debt stack, though they also shape the weighted average cost of capital. The trade-off is straightforward: proactive refinancing can smooth maturities and protect liquidity, but depending on terms, it can pressure near-term interest expense. Investors should focus on any updates about average interest rate, secured versus unsecured mix, and timing of maturities through 2027, as those disclosures will help triangulate the path from a solid 54.17% gross margin to a more neutral or positive net margin over the next several quarters.
On the income statement, EBIT is forecast at 60.72 million US dollars for the quarter, up 13.10% year over year per estimates, which supports the notion that operating profit is trending in the right direction even if net profit remains constrained by financing costs. If the company can combine stable leasing revenue with steady operating expenses and transparent refinancing milestones, the -0.01 adjusted EPS forecast becomes attainable. Conversely, a timing mismatch—where operating momentum arrives as interest costs step up—could keep net margin negative despite healthy cash-generation indicators such as funds from operations.
Analyst Opinions
Bullish views currently dominate the published opinion set, accounting for the clear majority over bearish calls when excluding neutral stances. Multiple institutions have expressed constructive views supported by steady leasing and by the ability to navigate the balance sheet with diversified financing tools. One major firm recently upgraded its stance to Overweight and lifted its price objective to 30.00 US dollars, citing improving rent dynamics and a healthy pipeline of dining and experience-focused tenants that can underpin occupancy and base-rent growth. Another leading institution initiated at Outperform with a 28.00 US dollars target, emphasizing relative strength in high-traffic centers and a pathway for cash flow resilience even as refinancing proceeds. A third well-followed bank reiterated a Buy view with a 22.00 US dollars target, highlighting stabilized same-store performance and visibility into leasing gains that could sustain EBIT improvement.The bullish case coheres around three testable points for this quarter and the next: first, revenue stability anchored by leasing demand, reflected in the 248.27 million US dollars revenue estimate and the minimal projected year-over-year decline of 0.48%; second, continued operating leverage, with consensus EBIT of 60.72 million US dollars implying a double-digit year-over-year increase; and third, incremental progress in addressing maturities without disruptive dilution to recurring cash flows. Proponents argue that a combination of steady re-leasing spreads and dining-led openings can bolster rent roll, while prudent use of equity and debt capacity preserves strategic flexibility. They also note that adjusted EPS of -0.01, up 82.50% year over year, sets a relatively low bar for positive surprise if interest expense trends or non-operating items are marginally better than feared.
In evaluating the balance of opinions, bulls acknowledge the financing overhang yet view it as an execution matter with identifiable benchmarks—maturity schedules, average interest rate trajectory, and the pace of property-level or corporate refinancings. The consistent thread is that operating momentum in leasing can outpace modest headwinds to revenue this quarter, while gross margin remains robust enough to bridge toward improved net outcomes as balance sheet actions accumulate. Net-net, the majority perspective expects management to deliver results broadly in line with revenue and EPS expectations, reinforce leasing visibility with updates on signed-not-open tenants, and provide clarity on capital structure milestones that reduce uncertainty into year-end and early 2027.
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