In June, domestic new energy vehicle sales, as reported by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), reached 1.643 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.6% and a month-on-month increase of 9.8%. Exports accounted for 523,000 units, surging 155.1% year-on-year and rising 17.2% month-on-month, maintaining a strong growth trend driven by robust overseas demand.
According to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles stood at 1.481 million units, up 19.3% year-on-year and 9.6% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 62.8%, a 1.7 percentage point increase from the previous month.
In terms of vehicle segments, B-segment and above new energy passenger vehicles accounted for 54.5% of retail sales in June, up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, remaining at a high level. This is primarily attributed to accelerated sales of mid-to-high-level vehicles under the 2026 vehicle trade-in policy. The share of A-segment vehicles rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 25.2%, while the combined share of A0 and A00 segments decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 20.3%.
Full-year sales for 2026 are projected to reach 18.56 million units, a 13% year-on-year increase.
CAAM Data Breakdown
Domestic new energy vehicle (including commercial vehicles) production in June 2026 was 1.598 million units, up 26.1% year-on-year and 2.8% month-on-month. Sales were 1.643 million units, rising 23.6% year-on-year and 9.8% month-on-month.
CPCA Data Breakdown
Domestic wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in June 2026 were 1.481 million units, increasing 19.3% year-on-year and 9.6% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 62.8%, up 1.7 percentage points month-on-month. Retail sales were 1.007 million units, down 9.4% year-on-year but up 6.0% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 62.8%, down 0.1 percentage point month-on-month. Exports reached 499,000 units, soaring 152.7% year-on-year and 17.6% month-on-month, with an export penetration rate of 56.6%, up 2.5 percentage points month-on-month.
Detailed Market Analysis
1) Segment Performance: The combined retail sales share of A00 and A0 segment new energy passenger vehicles saw a slight month-on-month decline in June. The share of A-segment vehicles experienced a marginal month-on-month increase. The share of B-segment and above vehicles remained at a high level, showing a slight month-on-month gain. Specifically, A-segment sales were 261,000 units, B-segment and above sales were 563,000 units, and combined A00+A0 segment sales were 210,000 units. The B-segment and above share was 54.5%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year and 0.4 percentage points month-on-month. The A-segment share was 25.2%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.1 percentage points month-on-month. The combined A00+A0 segment share was 20.3%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year and 0.4 percentage points month-on-month. The persistently high share of B-segment and above models is mainly due to the continued release of sales momentum for mid-to-high-level passenger vehicles following the update to the 2026 trade-in policy, driving overall passenger car sales towards higher segments.
2) Top Models: The BYD Song ranked first with sales of 79,000 units (up 4.6% month-on-month) and a market share of 5.4% (down 0.2 percentage points month-on-month). The Tesla Model Y, BYD Yuan UP, and Geely Xingyuan followed in second, third, and fourth place respectively. Their sales were 56,000, 54,000, and 51,000 units, with month-on-month changes of +3.1%, +30.9%, and +39.8%, and market shares of 3.8%, 3.7%, and 3.4%, representing month-on-month changes of -0.3, +0.6, and +0.7 percentage points, respectively.
3) Top Automakers: BYD maintained its top position with sales of 397,000 units, up 5.4% month-on-month, and a market share of 26.8%, down 1.1 percentage points month-on-month. Geely Auto ranked second with sales of 159,000 units, up 21.2% month-on-month, and a market share of 10.7%, up 1.0 percentage points month-on-month. Chery Auto ranked third with sales of 107,000 units, up 12.8% month-on-month, and a market share of 7.2%, up 0.2 percentage points month-on-month.
4) Exports: New energy vehicle exports (CAAM口径) reached 523,000 units, surging 155.1% year-on-year and increasing 17.2% month-on-month, maintaining a high-growth trend amid sustained strong overseas demand. Within this, Tesla exported 36,200 units, up 257.6% year-on-year but down 6.5% month-on-month.
Investment Outlook
Starting in 2026, the industry has entered a recovery cycle following the phasing out of subsidies. January demand was weak due to year-end pull-forward effects, February performance was subdued with the Lunar New Year holiday, while March saw a significant month-on-month recovery in production and sales, high export growth, and a maintained high share of premium models. The second quarter continued the recovery trend, with steady domestic production and sales growth. Exports remain a core growth driver for the industry, with the new energy vehicle export penetration rate reaching a record high of 57% in June. The share of B-segment and above premium models remains elevated, continuing the consumption upgrade trend. Amid the global shift towards electrification, exports and premiumization have become the core growth engines, enhancing the certainty of the industry's transition towards higher quality. Full-year 2025 sales of new energy vehicles in China (including commercial vehicles) reached 16.444 million units, up 27.9% year-on-year. The forecast for full-year 2026 sales is 18.56 million units (including commercial vehicles), representing 13% year-on-year growth.
Key Risk Factors
1) New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales Falling Short of Expectations: Sales may fall short due to policy fluctuations or weak demand. Production may be impacted by significant fluctuations in upstream raw material prices, power restrictions, import controls, etc., potentially affecting the profitability and valuations of companies across the industrial chain.
2) Raw Material Price Increases Exceeding Expectations: Raw material prices have been rising since 2021, with periods of significant volatility. High and unstable prices can impact terminal demand and significantly affect the profitability of related companies in the supply chain.
3) Delays in Key Lithium Battery Industry Chain Projects: The progress of key projects is crucial for supporting the revenue, profits, and growth potential of related companies. Delays could impact both near-term and long-term performance, as well as the stability of the industrial chain.
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