Data collected over the past 24 hours by Sina Finance's "Liquor Price Insider" indicates that the average terminal retail price for major Chinese baijiu products continued to decline on April 7th. If one bottle of each major product were bundled together, the total selling price today would be 9,938 yuan, a decrease of 23 yuan compared to yesterday, marking a new low for the past week. The market was predominantly weaker with more declines than gains, showing clear characteristics of a short-term adjustment.
Out of 11 major baijiu products tracked today, nine saw price decreases, one increased, and one remained flat. On the upside, Blue-and-White Langjiu saw a slight increase of 3 yuan per bottle, reaching a one-month high. On the downside, Yanghe's Dream Blue M6+ led the declines, dropping by 5 yuan per bottle, with its price under pressure due to slower terminal sales momentum. Premium Moutai, Blue-and-White Fenjiu 20, and Gujiao 1573 each fell by 4 yuan per bottle. Flying Fairy Moutai and Wuliangye's普五 Eighth Generation decreased by 3 yuan per bottle respectively. Wuliangye 1618, Xijiu Junpin, and Crystal Sword Nanchun all experienced minor declines of 1 yuan per bottle. The price of Gujing Gongjiu's Gu 20 remained unchanged from the previous day.
The daily data for "Liquor Price Insider" is sourced from approximately 200 collection points reasonably distributed across major regions of the country. These include, but are not limited to, designated distributors from distilleries, independent distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. The raw sample data consists of the actual transacted terminal retail prices from these points over the past 24 hours, aiming to provide objective, scientific, and fully traceable data on the market prices of well-known baijiu products. Following the official launch of Flying Fairy Moutai at 1,499 yuan per bottle on the iMoutai platform on New Year's Day (which increased to 1,539 yuan per bottle in the early hours of March 31st) and the launch of Premium Moutai at 2,299 yuan per bottle on January 9th, the gravitational pull of this new sales channel on the average terminal retail prices of these two products is gradually becoming apparent. The liquor prices published daily by "Liquor Price Insider" follow a calculation rule weighted by real transaction volume, and the measurable prices from this channel have been incorporated into the calculation of the terminal retail prices for these two products.
In other significant baijiu industry news, an article titled "An Eight-Dimensional In-Depth Analysis Report on Kweichow Moutai (600519)" was published on the 6th by the public account "Value Investing Deep Diver." The report pointed out that based on a DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) valuation using a forecasted 2025 net profit of 90 billion yuan, a long-term growth rate of 5%, and a discount rate of 7%, Kweichow Moutai's corresponding reasonable market capitalization is approximately 1.8 to 2 trillion yuan. This translates to a share price of roughly 1,430 to 1,590 yuan, which is largely in line with the current share price. If performance exceeds expectations in 2026 driven by price increases and channel reforms, a valuation based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 25 to 27 times would correspond to a share price of approximately 1,800 to 1,950 yuan, representing an upside potential of about 23% to 34% compared to the current price. The company's current valuation is at a historically low percentile, indicating a relatively sufficient margin of safety.
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