Anthropic's submission of its IPO prospectus unexpectedly ignited a powerful rally in the optical sector.
On Monday, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LITE) shares surged 8.2%, leading the S&P 500 index, while Coherent (NYSE: COHR) rose 5.8% and Ciena (NYSE: CIEN) climbed 4.9%. A combination of three positive factors—validation from AI capital expenditure data, expectations of potential supply chain protection policies, and signals of tightening supply in key semiconductor materials—jointly drove a strong recovery in the previously sold-off optical sector.
Anthropic's IPO prospectus was officially filed on Monday, and its financial data broadly lifted sentiment across chip and related hardware stocks. According to MarketWatch, Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani noted that after last week's sharp selloff in the optical sector, market interest in the space is reigniting, and many investors had been waiting for Anthropic to release its S-1 filing, viewing it as a signal to re-enter.
Meanwhile, AI industry fundamentals continued to release positive signals. Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META) announced an equity financing plan, and SpaceX committed $40 billion in financing for chips and other AI hardware. Daryanani stated that these developments sent the market a clear signal of "continued resilience" in AI investment. Additionally, expectations that the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) may restrict imports of specific optical modules early next year, along with news from Asian markets of slowing supply of key semiconductor materials, further reinforced the investment thesis for domestic optical manufacturers.
Anthropic Financial Data Validates AI Capital Expenditure, Investor Confidence Recovers
The release of Anthropic's IPO filing provided the market with an important window to examine the scale of AI infrastructure investment. According to reports, Daryanani stated that current AI industry profitability appears "relatively healthy" from a fundamental perspective, and Anthropic's financial data broadly boosted chip stocks.
Meta's equity financing announcement and SpaceX's commitment of up to $40 billion in AI hardware financing further confirmed the continued high-intensity investment by tech giants in AI infrastructure. Together, these signals indicate to the market that the AI capital expenditure cycle has not yet peaked, and the demand logic for optical interconnect as core data center infrastructure remains intact.
Potential FCC Restrictions Reshape Supply Chain Landscape, Domestic Manufacturers Set to Benefit
According to reports, Daryanani specifically highlighted the structural impact of FCC policy expectations on the optical sector. Citing industry experts, he noted that the FCC is expected to restrict imports of optical modules from specific foreign suppliers early next year, a move that would effectively exclude the relevant suppliers from the U.S. next-generation 3.2T optical module market.
The impact of this policy expectation should not be underestimated—currently, approximately two-thirds of such components globally are produced by suppliers in specific regions. If the restrictions take effect, they will pose certain short-term challenges to AI infrastructure deployment, but at the same time, U.S. domestic manufacturers and allied suppliers will directly benefit from the resulting market space, with companies such as Lumentum and Coherent poised to capture the corresponding order shifts.
InP Supply Growth Slows, Capacity Bottleneck Supports Prices and Demand Expectations
Weekend news from Asia also became an important driver of Monday's market action. According to Daryanani, supply growth of indium phosphide (InP), a key semiconductor material, has shown signs of slowing, indicating that some suppliers are facing challenges in ramping up InP capacity to meet current speed requirements.
The backdrop of this supply-side constraint is that the rapid development of AI has fundamentally changed the pace of technological iteration in the optical industry. Daryanani noted that traditional optical cycles typically last up to five years, but the rise of AI has pushed "lane speeds to increase almost annually"—meaning the frequency of leaps in data transmission rates has accelerated significantly.
Faster lane speeds, combined with the continued growth in the number of interconnects required by AI data centers, will persistently drive demand for optical components. The expansion of data center connectivity demand will also drive increased demand for lasers, including InP-based products. At the same time, expanding capacity and product certification both take time, and supply-side releases will lag relatively, meaning supply will remain tight for an extended period.
Daryanani concluded that these multiple dynamics "jointly support continued demand for suppliers capable of expanding capacity and delivering products at the required speeds," with domestic manufacturers such as Lumentum and Coherent that possess the relevant capabilities poised to continue benefiting from this cycle.
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