Analysis of the latest gold market trends:
On Monday, July 13th, during the late Asian trading session, spot gold was trading near $4060 per ounce. The renewed escalation of tensions between the US and Iran over the weekend strengthened inflation expectations, thereby solidifying market expectations for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy, which weighed on gold's gains. Spot gold fell 1.34% cumulatively last week, ultimately closing below $4120 per ounce. The renewed escalation of US-Iran tensions led investors to generally avoid precious metals, while supply concerns pushed oil prices higher and reinforced inflation expectations, further cementing market expectations for Fed policy tightening. Investors are closely watching this week's inflation data and testimony from Fed Chair Waller for further clues on the direction of monetary policy. Meanwhile, last week, gold traded at a significant discount in the Indian market, while demand in the Chinese market remained stable. Previously, the People's Bank of China reported that the monthly increase in gold reserves in June was the highest in over two and a half years.
Technical analysis of gold:
Looking at the current chart, gold shows a clear weak pattern on the daily chart. The price continues to be pressured below the short-term moving averages, which have turned downward, forming resistance. The price center is gradually shifting lower, with weak rebounds; each minor recovery has been met with resistance and a pullback. Resistance near the middle Bollinger Band has been tested repeatedly, indicating a risk of further declines. The overall daily trend is bearish with no signs of stabilization or reversal yet. The short-term outlook is primarily weak, oscillating downward, and caution is advised for a continuation of the correction. Key short-term resistance above is around 4130. On the early morning 4-hour chart, the opening was weak with a gap down. After opening, the rebound was weak, and the price continued to be suppressed, trading below the short-term moving averages. The moving averages formed layers of resistance, with rebounds repeatedly encountering resistance and pulling back, indicating a clear bearish rhythm. On the indicators, the MACD green bars continue to expand, with bearish momentum gradually strengthening, placing it in a weak range. There are no clear oversold stabilization signals yet. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with the price running near the lower band. Intraday, attention should be paid to resistance from the moving averages above to guard against further declines. Risk management is essential; wait for stabilization signals before making any plans. Intraday resistance is focused on the 4120-4130 area, while support is seen at 4040-4020. In summary, the recommended short-term trading strategy for gold today is primarily to sell on rallies, with buying on dips as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance above is at 4090-4120, and key short-term support below is at 4030-4000.
Analysis of the latest crude oil market trends:
Fundamental analysis of crude oil:
During Monday's Asian trading session, international crude oil prices ended their two-day consecutive correction, with WTI crude oil prices oscillating higher to around $74.50 per barrel. As military tensions between the US and Iran escalated again, market risk appetite significantly cooled. Investors reassessed the potential risks to energy supply in the Middle East, providing support for international oil prices. In addition to geopolitical factors, the market will focus this week on US inflation data, API and EIA crude oil inventory reports, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials. If US economic data continues to show weakness, it may strengthen market expectations for monetary policy adjustments, providing some support for oil prices from the demand side. Changes in inventories and developments in the Middle East situation will remain core factors influencing fluctuations in international oil prices.
Technical analysis of crude oil:
From the daily chart perspective, the moving average system is gradually diverging downward, indicating a medium-term objective downtrend. Crude oil broke below the support level of the lower range that had held for over three months, with bearish momentum strengthening. It is expected that the medium-term trend will primarily follow a downward rhythm. On the short-term (1-hour) chart, crude oil fell first and then rose, with prices moving higher in the morning session. The objective trend shows an oscillating rhythm, with the fluctuation range between 70.70 and 76.00. In terms of momentum, bulls have gained the upper hand. It is expected that after a slight intraday pullback, crude oil will continue its upward movement, with the overall trend showing an upward move within the range. In summary, the recommended trading strategy for crude oil today is primarily to buy on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance above is at 75.5-77.0, and key short-term support below is at 72.5-71.0.
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