CNOOC Stock Drops 3% Intraday as Analysts Flag Potential H1 Earnings Miss

Stock News07-28

CNOOC (00883) shares dipped nearly 3% in Hong Kong trading, currently down 2.16% to HK$22.70 with turnover of HK$937 million.

Macquarie Research released a report projecting that CNOOC's first-half earnings may fall short of market expectations, primarily due to a widening discount between the company's realized crude oil prices and Brent crude futures, along with potential impairment charges.

The investment bank estimates CNOOC's first-half net profit at 83.9 billion yuan, representing a 21% year-on-year increase. Macquarie maintains an "underperform" rating on CNOOC and has lowered its target price by 2% from 17.8 yuan to 17.5 yuan, reflecting weaker oil price realizations and higher impairment assumptions.

The report noted that CNOOC's realized oil price discount widened in the second quarter, attributed to weak Chinese demand and unusually large spot-futures price spreads. Macquarie forecasts CNOOC's second-quarter realized oil price at US$94.7 per barrel, a US$9.6 discount to Brent crude, compared to a US$5.5 discount in the first quarter.

On the production front, Macquarie expects CNOOC's first-half oil and gas output to grow 4% year-on-year to 402 million barrels of oil equivalent, maintaining resilience.

Looking ahead, Macquarie anticipates that CNOOC may increase capital expenditure during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period to support production growth and offset natural depletion.

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