Last week, the gold market experienced historic and dramatic volatility. Gold prices initially surged sharply, reaching a new all-time high near $5594, but in the final two trading sessions, they abruptly reversed course, nearly erasing all gains from the prior ten-plus trading days. Ultimately, gold closed the week at $4864, forming a weekly candlestick with an extremely long upper shadow on the chart. This pattern clearly reveals the immense selling pressure the market faced after its frenzied rally.
As we enter this week, the market is greeted by the crucial Non-Farm Payrolls data week. Beyond the primary focus on Friday's NFP report, investors must also closely monitor several other key variables: the progress in appointing the new Federal Reserve Chair, the evolving situation between the US and Iran, and potential new tariff moves from the Trump administration. Collectively, these factors form the core drivers of market sentiment this week.
On Monday, February 2nd, the market opened with a breathtaking "bombshell" move right after the opening bell. Gold prices first rapidly climbed to $4883, then plunged precipitously without warning to a low of $4609, before swiftly rebounding to reclaim ground above $4700. This series of violent intraday swings signals a fundamental shift in the market landscape: the trend has completely transitioned from the previous狂热bull market, driven by one-sided bets on "geopolitical避险" and "US dollar credit危机," to a brutal tug-of-war between bulls and bears centered around the "reassessment of Fed policy expectations" and the "unwinding of high-leverage risks." The market has officially entered a highly unstable, liquidity-driven phase of博弈. The core focus is no longer how high prices can go, but whether key support levels below can hold effectively.
It can be said that in such an extreme environment, daily—or even hourly—swings of hundreds of dollars have become commonplace, drastically increasing the difficulty of market operations. We must reiterate that unchanging principle: every single trade entry must unconditionally be accompanied by preset stop-loss and take-profit orders. After all, given the current situation, news that stimulates避险sentiment and factors that create bearish pressure are equally层出不穷. Any expectation for a one-sided, rapid price movement is likely to be disappointed. Repeated, violent "roller-coaster" oscillations are becoming the new normal for the market.
From a technical perspective, the ultra-long-term uptrend on the daily chart has been severely damaged by such a sharp adjustment. The price has clearly broken below the historic psychological barrier of $5000 and the key support zone of $4800-$4850, indicating the market structure has turned weak. Resistance is now seen at $4800-$4850. This is the area for intraday rebound highs and the first hurdle for market sentiment to transition from "panic" to "oscillation." The next level is $4950-$5000. Only a sustained move back above this zone would signal the end of the deep correction and a return to market equilibrium. On the downside, focus is on $4600-$4620; a break below this level would open the door for further declines in gold.
In summary, given the intense daily price swings, conservative gold investors can patiently wait for the market to complete this brutal "stress test." They should assess the timing for the next medium-term布局opportunity calmly only after a clear, solid stabilization structure emerges in the $4600-$4500 zone or even lower. In the market's darkest hours, the greatest wisdom is survival, and the biggest risk is believing oneself smarter than others. Of course, investors with larger capital or a more aggressive stance can still look for entry opportunities, provided they strictly implement stop-loss and take-profit orders.
Therefore, the intraday trading recommendations are as follows: Gold: Go short around $4780-$4790, with a stop-loss at $4800, targeting $4650-$4600. Hold the position if this level is broken. If the price stabilizes firmly above $4800, close shorts and consider going long instead, targeting higher levels sequentially.
Key financial data and events to watch today, Monday, February 2, 2026: 22:45 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for January 23:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI for January Next Day 01:30 Speech by Fed's Bostic
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