The recent provisional ceasefire arrangement between the United States and Iran has led to a gradual resumption of shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has initiated a large-scale vessel evacuation plan to assist hundreds of stranded merchant ships and tankers in the Persian Gulf in passing through the strait in an orderly manner.
However, industry insiders widely believe that while the strait has "reopened," a return to normal operations remains distant, with the global shipping sector continuing to face pressures from high insurance costs, capacity mismatches, and supply chain adjustments in the short term.
According to IMO disclosures, some container ships, bulk carriers, and tankers have transited the Strait of Hormuz under a coordinated mechanism, with the evacuation of approximately 11,000 seafarers underway simultaneously.
Nevertheless, the current daily transit volume is only about 25 vessels, far below the pre-conflict normal level of over 120 vessels per day, with an estimated 500 to 600 ships still awaiting passage.
Market data indicates that despite the reopening of the route, shipping risk premiums remain elevated.
Freight rates for some Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) once surged to around $470,000 per day, significantly higher than pre-conflict levels; concurrently, war risk insurance premiums remain high, prompting many shipowners to remain cautious about returning to the Strait of Hormuz.
Industry analysis points out that the Strait of Hormuz crisis has impacted the shipping industry primarily in three areas.
First, shipping costs have risen significantly.
During the conflict, war risk insurance rates increased dramatically.
Insurance market data shows related premiums surged thousands of times compared to pre-crisis levels, with insurance costs for a single transit for some vessels reaching about 4% of the vessel's value.
Even under the ceasefire framework, insurance institutions have not fully downgraded their risk assessments.
Second, a short-term imbalance has emerged in global capacity allocation.
With numerous tankers, LNG carriers, and bulk carriers stranded in the Persian Gulf for an extended period, vessel shortages have appeared on some routes while capacity has piled up in the Middle East region.
As vessels gradually resume operations, the global shipping market may face significant freight rate volatility in the coming months.
Third, the priority of supply chain security has increased.
This crisis has exposed global trade's reliance on critical maritime chokepoints.
An increasing number of shippers and energy companies are beginning to evaluate alternative transport solutions, including building strategic inventories, promoting pipeline construction, and optimizing sourcing layouts to reduce dependence on the single Strait of Hormuz route.
Overall, while the most tense phase for the Strait of Hormuz may have passed, the "post-crisis era" for the shipping industry is just beginning.
High insurance costs, stringent safety reviews, and supply chain restructuring will be key themes in the global shipping market for some time to come.
In terms of secondary market performance, within cyclical industries, high-frequency freight rates and stock prices show a clear positive correlation.
Since 2026, shipping stocks have been impacted by geopolitical conflicts such as those involving the US and Iran, with structural opportunities emerging across sub-sectors, with the tanker sector showing the most pronounced improvement in fundamentals.
For container shipping, driven by trends in trade protectionism and high energy prices due to the US-Iran conflict, a phase of pre-emptive shipping began in April 2026, leading to a short-term concentrated surge in freight rates, approaching 2024 highs.
For tanker shipping, the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz blockade initially pushed freight rates higher before they retreated, but the overall rate level has been elevated, with one-year time charter rates reaching new highs.
For dry bulk shipping, fundamentals improved from March, catalyzed by congestion at the Panama Canal pushing freight rates up.
Looking Ahead
For container shipping, changes in tariff policies and the impact of regional conflicts warrant attention in 2026.
In the first half of 2026, ton-mile demand on main Europe-US routes saw recovery due to pre-emptive shipping, while demand growth in emerging markets remained relatively strong.
Container shipping volume demand for 2026-27 is projected at 2.3%/3.0%; the ongoing Red Sea diversions coupled with Middle East route disruptions increased the average sailing distance in 2026.
Assuming the Red Sea route resumes around mid-2027, projected ton-mile growth for 2026-27 is estimated at 3.4%/-1.2%.
On the supply side, fleet capacity growth for 2026-27 is estimated at 3.9%/7.5%.
Regarding freight rate outlook, 2026 is a relatively light year for new vessel deliveries, and the concentrated outbreak of pre-emptive shipping demand may push rates higher in phases; supply in 2027 is relatively ample, potentially leading to a stepwise decline in rates.
For tanker shipping, the reshaping of energy supply chains is improving the supply-demand balance.
In March 2026, oil product shipping volumes declined significantly due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade; however, with the easing of US-Iran tensions and improved strait transit, 2026 oil product seaborne volume is forecast at -4.9%, with ton-mile demand growth narrowing to -3.1% (due to trade route adjustments lengthening distances).
If restocking demand persists in 2027, ton-mile demand growth is expected to recover to +6.9%.
On the supply side, fleet capacity growth for 2026-27 is estimated at 5.0%/5.7%, with VLCC growth at 4.2%/6.0%; however, due to factors like sanctioned vessels and the retirement of older ships, actual effective supply remains tight (with vessels over 25 years old accounting for 9.6%/12.6% in 2026/27).
Regarding freight rate outlook, after the improvement in strait transit in the second half of 2026, a concentrated release of Middle East cargo is anticipated, potentially boosting Q3 rates significantly; rates in 2027 are expected to remain elevated.
For dry bulk shipping, focus in the medium to long term is on increased trade turnover for iron ore and grains.
Looking ahead to 2026-27, improved demand for iron ore (accelerated shipments from Simandou), coal transportation, and the renewal of US-China grain trade agreements are expected to support overall dry bulk market fundamentals.
Dry bulk shipping volume growth for 2026-27 is projected at 1.3%/1.4%, with ton-mile demand growth at 2.1%/1.7%.
On the supply side, fleet capacity growth for 2026/27 is estimated at 3.5%/3.8%, with Capesize capacity growth relatively limited.
Regarding freight rate outlook, if US-Iran tensions ease, Q3 fundamentals may see a marginal decline, but the El Niño phenomenon could lead to accelerated coal destocking and Panama Canal drought, potentially causing a rebound in Q4 rates.
In the medium to long term, the dry bulk freight rate level is expected to rise steadily.
Analysis suggests that in the second half of 2026, attention should be paid to the potential rise in tanker freight rates following the easing of US-Iran tensions, improved profitability for the container shipping sector in Q3, and the impact of the El Niño phenomenon on the dry bulk sector in Q4.
Two main themes for the second half of 2026 are: 1) improved strait transit volumes and rising freight rate trends following the easing of US-Iran tensions; 2) tight container shipping capacity and firm freight rates.
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