On May 26th: In the previous trading session on Monday (May 25th), international gold prices opened higher and strengthened due to reports that the U.S. and Iran are close to reaching an agreement to extend the existing ceasefire by 60 days, during which the Strait will reopen. Arab media reports of a draft agreement between the U.S. and Iran further supported gold prices, leading to a steady rise and a positive close. This has strengthened the short-term outlook, with expectations for a further rebound towards the 30-day moving average resistance target around $4,650 within the week.
In terms of specific price movements, gold opened higher in the Asian session at $4,526.87 per ounce, initially hitting an intraday low of $4,524.06 before rebounding to an intraday high of $4,579.78. Although there was a subsequent pullback from resistance, it failed to erase the earlier gains or close the gap, and prices eventually stabilized and closed at $4,569.07. Compared to the previous Friday's closing price of $4,504.82, the daily range was $74.96, with a gain of $64.25, or 1.43%.
Looking ahead to Tuesday (May 26th), international gold prices opened with continued strength. The optimistic prospects for a U.S.-Iran agreement that emerged at the start of the week persist, bolstered by reports that the two sides have reached an understanding on Iran's frozen assets, with an announcement possibly coming tomorrow. These developments continue to support gold prices, maintaining their strength for the week. Intraday trading strategies remain focused on buying on dips.
Fundamentally, a sharp rise in market optimism regarding a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement has directly led to significant declines in the U.S. dollar and international oil prices. In contrast, gold has benefited as a safe-haven asset and an inflation hedge.
Currently, market prospects are shifting towards multiple positive developments from breakthrough progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations. These include extending the ceasefire by 60 days to completely end the Middle East conflict, fully reopening shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to lift the blockade on this key waterway, and revoking the U.S. maritime blockade on Iranian ports.
However, the market is not entirely optimistic. Historical experience suggests that the U.S. and Iran could change their stance at any time. Additionally, reports indicate that significant differences remain between the two sides on core issues such as restrictions on Iran's nuclear program and the extent of sanctions relief. Subsequent negotiations are highly susceptible to setbacks, which could also cause gold prices to encounter resistance and pull back after their rebound, maintaining a pattern of volatile adjustment.
Furthermore, later this week on Thursday and Friday, the U.S. will release the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, and several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to deliver public speeches. If the data shows continued inflationary pressures and the officials' remarks are hawkish, this could further pressure gold prices lower.
Nevertheless, it is believed that this is unlikely to alter the medium to long-term trajectory of gold prices. Overall, since the outbreak of the Middle East war in early 2026, gold has been under pressure. The surge in oil prices related to Strait issues has heightened global inflation expectations, leading to widespread market concerns that the Federal Reserve may be forced to restart interest rate hikes to curb inflation. As a non-yielding asset, gold's attractiveness diminishes significantly in a high-interest-rate environment, contributing to its sustained weakness.
Looking ahead, until the U.S.-Iran negotiations are finalized and a formal written agreement is in place, the upside for gold prices will remain constrained by multiple factors. Short-term movements will continue to be closely tied to the strength of the U.S. dollar, oil price volatility, and shifts in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate hikes.
However, long-term support for gold remains solid: the global de-dollarization process is steadily advancing, with central banks worldwide continuing to significantly increase their gold reserves to optimize their foreign exchange reserve structures. Simultaneously, investment demand for gold from global retail and institutional investors remains stable, and overall holdings in gold ETFs are maintained at high levels. These dual positive factors can effectively limit the potential for a deep correction in gold prices. Therefore, from a multi-year perspective, the current period of volatile adjustment can still be viewed as an entry opportunity.
Technically, on the monthly chart, gold prices are trading below the 5-month moving average, indicating weakness. A close below the support of the 10-month moving average at $4,370 could lead to a further decline towards the $4,100 or even $3,800 levels. Conversely, a close back above the 5-month moving average at $4,800 could signal a resumption of the bull market.
On the weekly chart, gold formed a bullish doji candlestick pattern last week after falling to a low, indicating a potential halt to the decline and a reversal. This week's opening strength validates this bullish view. However, resistance remains from the 5-, 10-, and 30-week moving averages above. Therefore, before a rebound can reclaim levels above the middle Bollinger Band, there is still a tendency for prices to remain volatile or potentially turn lower again.
On the daily chart, although gold is currently rebounding strongly, it faces resistance from multiple moving averages and remains within the recent downtrend channel. Additionally, the 60-day and 100-day moving averages have formed a bearish death crossover, suggesting a risk of a decline below $4,400, potentially towards the $4,000 level. However, a rebound above the 100-day moving average would invalidate this view.
Intraday trading continues to favor a bullish rebound. Focus on support from the 5-day moving average or intraday short-term cycle support for potential long entries.
For specific real-time trading guidance, please refer to live account information.
Preliminary intraday trading level ideas are for reference only; specific entry and exit points are subject to live account notifications: Gold: Support levels to watch are around $4,535 or $4,500; resistance levels are around $4,600 or $4,635. Silver: Support levels to watch are around $76.75 or $75.40; resistance levels are around $79.20 or $80.50.
Comments