Traders citing shipping data indicate that the U.S. decision to further extend a sanctions waiver for Russian crude oil exports is unlikely to significantly increase Russia's export volumes, as current shipments are already approaching the limits of its infrastructure capacity.
Market participants note that, given Russia has already ramped up exports to near-maximum levels to alleviate pressure on its oil system, the waiver extension is not expected to provide a substantial boost. Since March, multiple Ukrainian attacks targeting key Russian refineries and energy infrastructure have led to processing disruptions, freeing up more crude oil for export.
According to traders, data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), and related calculations, exports and shipments via Russia's western ports during the first two weeks of May increased by approximately 150,000 barrels per day compared to April, representing a rise of about 9%.
Between May 1 and May 15, daily shipments of Urals crude, KEBCO crude, and Siberian Light crude (including carryover volumes) from the ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk averaged between 2.35 million and 2.4 million barrels. This figure is higher than the approximately 2.2 million barrels per day recorded in April. Traders state that this level is nearing the capacity limits of Transneft, Russia's oil pipeline operator.
"The system is operating under strain, with little room for further increases," one trader commented.
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